January 3 Macroeconomic Index:Domestic adjustment of technology export catalog, Li Qiang emphasized the economic start; international coffee bean prices soared, and European economic concerns deepened.

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Domestic News

1. The adjustment of the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted by China for Export" is open for public comment

2. During the investigation in Shandong, Li Qiang emphasized that he should pay close attention to promoting the implementation of various tasks from the beginning and strive to achieve a good start of economic development this year

3. The State Food and Drug Administration approved the listing of China's first stem cell therapy drug

4. Sichuan: Suspend the peak electricity price mechanism in January 2025

5. The price of refined oil witnessed the "first rise" in the New Year 2025, and more than 2.5 yuan was costed by filling up a tank of oil

 International News

1. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose on the first day of the New Year, and the larger ship market rose

2. The market expects the Fed to be cautious, and the dollar hit a two-year high

3. Global coffee production has plummeted, and coffee bean futures prices have soared to a nearly 50-year high in December 2024

4. There are growing worries about the European economy, and Europe/the United States fell to a new low in more than two years

5. The upward revision of the final value of the US manufacturing PMI in December released a positive signal

Domestic News

1. The adjustment of the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted by China for Export" is open for public comment

On the 2nd, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on the adjustment of the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted by China for Export" for public comment. According to the notice, in order to strengthen the management of technology import and export, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China" and the "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Technology Import and Export", the Ministry of Commerce, together with the Ministry of Science and Technology and other departments, intends to adjust the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export by China". In this catalogue adjustment, it is proposed to add 1 new technical item, modify 1 technical item, and delete 3 technical items, so as to create positive conditions for strengthening international technical exchanges and cooperation. According to the notice, the adjustment of the catalogue is hereby open to the public for comments, and the specific content of the catalogue adjustment and the channels for submitting comments can be found on the official website of the Ministry of Commerce. The deadline for feedback is February 1, 2025.

2. During the investigation in Shandong, Li Qiang emphasized that he should pay close attention to promoting the implementation of various tasks from the beginning and strive to achieve a good start of economic development this year

Li Qiang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, conducted research in Jinan, Shandong Province on January 2. He stressed that entering the new year, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the spirit of the General Secretary's important speech at the Central Economic Work Conference, seize the day, grasp it from the beginning with a sense of responsibility and urgency, promote the early implementation of policies, the rapid advancement of projects, and the practical results of measures, and strive to achieve a good start of economic development this year.

3. The State Food and Drug Administration approved the listing of China's first stem cell therapy drug

On January 2, the State Food and Drug Administration conditionally approved the marketing of China's first stem cell therapy drug, Amymetosel Injection, through the priority review and approval procedure, for the treatment of acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) with failed hormone therapy for gastrointestinal involvement over the age of 14.

4. Sichuan: Suspend the peak electricity price mechanism in January 2025

The Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on suspending the peak electricity price mechanism in January 2025. In order to give full play to the role of time-of-use electricity price signal, better guide users to peak shaving and valley filling, and improve power supply and demand, the Commission is recently studying and adjusting the time-of-use electricity price mechanism according to the power supply and demand situation, load characteristics, new energy development and inter-provincial power purchase in our province. In order to do a good job in policy convergence, in January 2025, the implementation of the peak electricity price policy will be suspended for large industrial users in our province, and the rest of the time-of-use electricity price policy will still be implemented according to the current policy.

5. The price of refined oil witnessed the "first rise" in the New Year 2025, and more than 2.5 yuan was costed by filling up a tank of oil

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window was opened at 24 o'clock today (January 2). According to the monitoring of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (December 18, 2024 - January 1, 2025), international oil prices fluctuated upward. The reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission today that the specific situation of the oil price adjustment is as follows: domestic gasoline and diesel are raised by 70 yuan per ton. The national average: No. 92 gasoline increased by 0.05 yuan per liter, No. 95 gasoline increased by 0.06 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel increased by 0.06 yuan per liter. Filling up a 50L tank of No. 92 gasoline will cost about 2.5 yuan more.

International News

1. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose on the first day of the New Year, and the larger ship market rose

According to foreign media reports, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose on the first trading day of the new year, higher than the large ship market. Since the end of trading of the previous year on December 24, 2024, the BDI market has resumed trading today after the Christmas and New Year's holidays. The Baltic Dry Index rose 32 points to 1,029. The capesize freight index rose 114 points to 1,261. The average daily profit of capesize vessels rose $943 to $10,459. The Panamax freight index rose 12 points to 1,000. The average daily profit of Panamax ships rose by $117 to $9,005. The Supramax bulk carrier freight index fell 24 points to 899 points, the lowest since August 2023.

2. The market expects the Fed to be cautious, and the dollar hit a two-year high

The U.S. dollar index rose to a two-year high as the market expects the Fed to take a more cautious approach to rate cuts in 2025. Markets are betting that President-elect Trump's policies, including proposed trade tariffs and tax cuts, will exacerbate inflation and limit rate cuts. "Due to the resilient US economy, the market is now pricing in no more than two 25bp rate cuts for the full year, which will support the dollar," Danske Bank's Mohammed Salaf said in a note. "In December, the Fed also signaled that it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts.

3. Global coffee production has plummeted, and coffee bean futures prices have soared to a nearly 50-year high in December 2024

The prolonged period of extreme drought has sharply reduced global coffee production, and the imbalance between supply and demand has caused the price of coffee bean futures to soar to a new high in nearly 50 years in December 2024. According to the data, from January to November 2024, Vietnam's cumulative coffee exports totaled nearly 1.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. However, as global coffee prices soared in 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports reached US$4.84 billion from January to November 2024, up 32.8% year-on-year.

4. There are growing worries about the European economy, and Europe/the United States fell to a new low in more than two years

EUR/USD fell as much as 0.4% to 1.0314 during the day, the lowest level since November 2022, and the pair has fallen about 8% since late September last year amid concerns about the European economy and monetary policy divergence with the United States. The euro has been trading lower on fears that the region's export-oriented economies would be hit by US trade tariffs and that the European Central Bank would cut interest rates more than the Fed expects. Political uncertainty in the EU's largest economy has also added to the pressure. Many strategists expected the euro to fall to parity with the dollar this year, or even lower. The last time this critical psychological threshold was breached was in 2022, when Russia-Ukraine issue began, triggering an energy crisis in Europe and raising fears of a recession.

5. The upward revision of the final value of the US manufacturing PMI in December released a positive signal

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that the final US manufacturing PMI in December was revised up to 49.4 from 48.3 in the preliminary reading. This is slightly larger than the usual correction, which is particularly welcome given the disappointing preliminary data. The decline in production increased in December due to a disappointing inflow of new orders. Although customer demand recovered in November as the uncertainty surrounding the election passed and order volumes were close to stabilizing, the relief proved to be temporary. However, many companies widely expect business to turn around in the new year, and respondents are pinning their hopes on the new administration to ease regulations, reduce tax burdens, and boost demand for American-made goods through tariffs.

Domestic Macro Economy Index