January 6 Macroeconomic Index:Economic policy and market dynamics update in early 2025

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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The Central Bank: focus on seven tasks in 2025

2. The National Data Bureau organized and held a seminar on promoting the innovation and development of the platform economy

3. Sheng Songcheng, professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: There is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts, and consumption is the key in 2025

4. The General Administration of Customs has promulgated 15 measures to promote the large-scale development of the western region and form a new pattern

5. China's commodity price index corrected slightly in December 2024

 International News

1. Nippon Steel plans to sue the U.S. government over the obstruction of the acquisition of U.S. Steel

2. The world's first deterministic computing network infrastructure for photoelectric fusion was officially opened

3. In 2024, the global sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 17.5 million

4. After the termination of the Russia-Ukraine gas transmission agreement, Italy raised the restrictive electricity price in the first quarter

5. Biden will ban new oil drilling activities in large swaths of U.S. waters

Domestic News

1. The Central Bank: focus on seven tasks in 2025

The 2025 People's Bank of China Work Conference was held on January 3-4. The meeting stressed that the People's Bank of China system should earnestly unify its ideological understanding and action with the analysis, judgment, and decision-making arrangements of the Party Central Committee, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implement the new development concept in a complete, accurate, and comprehensive manner, implement a moderately loose monetary policy, prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas, further deepen financial reform and high-level opening up, focus on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing expectations, and stimulating vitality, so as to create a good monetary and financial environment for promoting a sustained economic rebound. In 2025, we will focus on the following tasks: First, unswervingly deepen the comprehensive and strict governance of the Party. Second, it is necessary to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth. The third is to coordinate the "five major articles" of finance to better serve the high-quality development of the economy. Fourth, give full play to the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions, and maintain the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks. Fifth, we will steadily promote financial reform and opening up and enhance the level of RMB internationalization. Sixth, we will deeply participate in global financial governance and cooperation. Seventh, the central bank's financial management and services should be further optimized.

2. The National Data Bureau organized and held a seminar on promoting the innovation and development of the platform economy

On the afternoon of December 31, the Department of Digital Economy of the National Data Bureau organized a seminar on promoting the innovation and development of the platform economy. The meeting focused on creating a graded market for consumer goods, preventing and resolving "rat race" competition, strengthening the self-discipline of new business industries, and promoting collaborative innovation in technology ecology and business ecology, and listened to the opinions and suggestions of platform enterprises. At the meeting, platform companies said that since the beginning of this year, under the support and guidance of a series of national incremental policies, enterprises have focused on core business, strengthened innovation-driven, and the overall business situation has gradually improved. In the next step, we will adhere to the overall concept, strengthen openness, sharing and interconnection, strive to enhance core competitiveness, improve product quality and service capabilities, actively fulfill social responsibilities, prevent and resolve "rat race" competition, continue to consolidate the positive trend of operation, and achieve innovative development.

3. Sheng Songcheng, professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: There is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts, and consumption is the key in 2025

Sheng Songcheng, a professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and dean of the China Chief Economist Forum Research Institute, said at the "2025 Youshan Winter Forum" that there is still a lot of room for China's fiscal policy and monetary policy to achieve the goal of economic and social development in 2025, and consumption will play a more important role in economic growth. Sheng Songcheng said that the service industry accounts for a high proportion of China's overall household consumption, and more attention should be paid to service consumption, which will play a key role in boosting consumption. In terms of specific measures, he said that at present, China has made overall arrangements for about 150 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds for the trade-in of consumer goods, and another 150 billion yuan can be added to the housekeeping, elderly care, childcare and other industries that can directly reach the consumer terminal, and this structural reform will have an immediate effect. At present, China's service consumption accounts for 52% of residents' consumption, compared with 65% in the United States, there is still a lot of room for improvement.

4. The General Administration of Customs has promulgated 15 measures to promote the large-scale development of the western region and form a new pattern

The General Administration of Customs (5th) announced the introduction of 15 measures to support the new era to further promote the development of the western region and form a new pattern. The new measures focus on: opening up the construction of ports in the western region, supporting the opening or expansion of ports in areas that are really in need and meet the requirements, and supporting the construction of smart ports; explore and innovate facilitation measures such as river-sea combined transport and rail-sea combined transport to support the high-quality development of multimodal transport; support Chengdu, Chongqing, Kunming, Xi'an, Urumqi and other cities to build international aviation hubs; In the western region, we will explore and carry out reforms such as the "integration of districts and ports" in the comprehensive bonded zone.

5. China's commodity price index corrected slightly in December 2024

According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on the 4th, China's commodity price index (CBPI) in December 2024 was 111.2 points, down 1% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year. From the perspective of the operation of the index, due to the deepening adverse effects of changes in the external environment and the impact of the traditional consumption off-season, the index showed a slight correction, but it was higher than the low point of the year, indicating that the overall operation of the bulk market was stable. Looking forward to 2025, the analysis believes that there are still many uncertainties in the global economy and economic and trade policies, but domestic demand is expected to be further released, and the domestic economy is expected to continue to maintain relatively stable growth; At the same time, the more active and loose fiscal and monetary policies of countries around the world have also supported the global bulk market. Overall, there are more advantages than disadvantages, and the global economy and markets will be slightly better than in 2024.

International News

1. Nippon Steel plans to sue the U.S. government over the obstruction of the acquisition of U.S. Steel

According to the website of Japan's Fuji TV, on January 5, local time, relevant sources revealed that Nippon Steel plans to sue the U.S. government for the obstruction of the acquisition of U.S. Steel. The litigation will involve issues such as CFIUS's review of the reasonableness of procedures in the acquisition process. According to the report, if the acquisition fails, Nippon Steel may have to pay $565 million in liquidated damages to U.S. Steel.

2. The world's first deterministic computing network infrastructure for photoelectric fusion was officially opened

According to the WeChat official account of "Nanjing Release", on January 2, the National Major Science and Technology Infrastructure (CENI), the future network test facility, was announced to be fully completed. On January 3, the world's first deterministic computing network infrastructure based on CENI facilities was officially opened and demonstrated.

3. In 2024, the global sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 17.5 million

According to the Advanced Industry Research Institute (GGII), driven by the strong growth of the Chinese market, the global sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 17.5 million units in 2024; GGII predicts that the global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 21 million units in 2025, and the global vehicle electrification penetration rate will reach 23.2%. In 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales were expected to reach 12.85 million units, with an electrification penetration rate of 40.9%; In 2025, policies such as trade-in, tax incentives, and car purchase subsidies are expected to continue, stimulating the demand of the auto market to maintain growth. Combined with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference to support new energy vehicles to go to the countryside and the policy of trade-in, GGII predicts that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 16.1 million in 2025, and the electrification penetration rate is expected to exceed 50%.

4. After the termination of the Russia-Ukraine gas transmission agreement, Italy raised the restrictive electricity price in the first quarter

A few days ago, the Italian Energy Network and Environmental Management Agency issued a statement saying that due to the continued geopolitical tensions and the current low winter temperatures, Italy's restricted electricity prices in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 18.2% month-on-month from the 3rd. Italian media reported that the decision was associated with the termination of the agreement on the transit transportation of Russian-Ukrainian gas. The increase was a restrictive electricity price for vulnerable groups such as residents over 75 years old, receiving social security subsidies, and people with disabilities, involving 3.4 million users. Italian electricity prices are expected to rise by 30% in the future, as unrestricted free market electricity prices are generally above the cap. In addition, independent agencies predict that each Italian household will pay an additional 230 euros in gas bills over the next year.

5. Biden will ban new oil drilling activities in large swaths of U.S. waters

U.S. President Joe Biden will order a ban on new offshore oil and gas development in the U.S. coastal area of about 625 million acres, ruling out the sale of drilling rights in the Atlantic and Pacific waters, as well as in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Domestic Macro Economy Index