March 12 Macroeconomic Index:China's economic recovery and green transformation are accelerating, while the international situation focuses on sanctions, market stability and defense spending

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Domestic News

1. Tax data show that in the past five months, China's economic rebound has been showing a positive trend

2. Deputies to the National People's Congress: Accelerate the cultivation of new growth points for energy-saving and carbon-reduction economies

3. The deputies and members of the Committee hotly discussed the construction of the national unified market: building a national data trading market, and legislating to rectify "involutional" competition

4. The representatives and members of the Committee discussed the construction of the green futures market to better serve the transformation and upgrading of the real economy

5. In the first two months, the production, sales and export of new energy vehicles increased by more than 50%

 International News

1. US Secretary of Energy: The Trump administration is ready to enforce oil sanctions against Iran

2. Bank of Indonesia intervenes in the market to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate

3. Moscow, Russia, was hit by a massive drone attack

4. The Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan claimed to haven't talked about the exemption of Japan from additional tariffs

5. Germany's Green Party expects to reach a defense spending deal this week

Domestic News

1. Tax data show that in the past five months, China's economic rebound has been showing a positive trend

According to the latest VAT invoice data released by the State Administration of Taxation, from October 2024 to February 2025, the sales revenue of enterprises nationwide increased by 1.1 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2024. The invoice data reflects the following five highlights of economic operation: First, the manufacturing industry has grown steadily, and the supporting role of equipment manufacturing is strong. Second, the growth momentum of emerging industries is good, and the development of new quality productive forces is accelerating. Third, the equipment renewal has been steadily promoted, and the trade-in of consumer goods has continued to improve. Fourth, ecological and environmental protection services have grown rapidly, and the clean energy industry has developed rapidly. Fifth, inter-provincial trade continues to be unimpeded, and the construction of a unified market is advancing in an orderly manner.

2. Deputies to the National People's Congress: Accelerate the cultivation of new growth points for energy-saving and carbon-reduction economies

In this year's government work report, the main development goals for this year are proposed to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by about 3%. Representatives of the National People's Congress from the power, steel, and new energy industries said that the establishment of this goal not only highlights the determination of China's economic and social development to achieve a comprehensive green transformation, but also brings new growth space for green development-related industries. Qian Haijun, a representative of the National People's Congress, said that in terms of energy conservation and carbon reduction, it is necessary to continue to expand the implementation of large-scale equipment updates, especially in high-energy-using areas and high-energy-consuming industries to achieve high-end, smart and green transformation of equipment. In Zhejiang, a major energy-using province, relevant policies have been introduced recently to clearly cultivate green industries for energy conservation, carbon reduction, and resource recycling, and the total output value of energy conservation and environmental protection industries will reach 1.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2025.

3. The deputies and members of the Committee hotly discussed the construction of the national unified market: building a national data trading market, and legislating to rectify "involutional" competition

In 2025, China will promote the construction of a unified national market in depth. How to improve the basic system rules, how to smooth the circulation channels of factors, and how to rectify the over-competition...... During this year's Two Sessions, the Deputies and Committee Members conducted a lot of discussions on the stuck points that restrict the economic cycle. In the view of many Deputies and Committee Members, in the construction of a unified national market, in terms of improving the market system, it is necessary to strengthen the system design in key areas; In terms of smooth factor circulation, a unified and standardized data trading market should be built; In rectifying market blockages such as over-competition, it is necessary to create a fair competition market environment by means of the rule of law.

4. The representatives and members of the Committee discussed the construction of the green futures market to better serve the transformation and upgrading of the real economy

In recent years, Deputies and Members of the Two Sessions have paid more and more attention to the green development of futures market services. At the Two Sessions of this year, a number of representatives and members actively put forward suggestions on topics such as green futures to promote the futures market to better serve the real economy and help green transformation. Xu Yanming, a deputy to the National People's Congress and Chairman of Zhuhai Guanyu, suggested that the listing of carbon emission rights futures should be accelerated. In response to the fluctuation of electricity prices, Hu Dezhao, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Chairman of Baiyun Electric Appliances, suggested that the medium and long-term trading mechanism of electricity should be optimized. Cao Renxian, deputy to the National People's Congress and Chairman of Sungrow, suggested that the construction of the power futures market should be promoted and the coordination between the futures market and the spot, medium and long-term markets should be strengthened.

5. In the first two months, the production, sales and export of new energy vehicles increased by more than 50%

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers today (11th), from January to February this year, China's automobile production and sales continued to maintain stable growth, of which the production and sales of new energy vehicles and export volume performed prominently. From January to February, China's automobile production and sales were 4.553 million and 4.552 million respectively, an increase of 16.2% and 13.1% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, the production, sales and exports of new energy vehicles increased by more than 50% year-on-year. From January to February, NEV production and sales totaled 1.903 million units and 1.835 million units, up 52% and 52% y/y, respectively.

International News

1. US Secretary of Energy: The Trump administration is ready to enforce oil sanctions against Iran

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said the Trump administration is ready to enforce U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil production. "At the last time when he was president, Iran's oil exports shrank to very conservative levels," Wright said, "and Biden didn't lift those sanctions, but he stopped enforcing them."

2. Bank of Indonesia intervenes in the market to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate

Bank of Indonesia is intervening in the spot, domestic non-deliverable forward and bond markets as risk aversion triggered by U.S. economic concerns has led to a sell-off, and the central bank of Indonesia officials said. The rupiah fell as much as 0.5% to 16,420 against the dollar during Tuesday's session before recovering some of its losses.

3. Moscow, Russia, was hit by a massive drone attack

On March 11, local time, the governor of the Moscow region announced that Moscow and the Moscow region suffered a large-scale drone attack from 4 a.m. that day. As of now, one person has died, three have been injured in the Moscow region.

4. The Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan claimed to haven't talked about the exemption of Japan from additional tariffs

Yoji Muto, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, held talks with the country's Commerce Minister Lutnick in Washington, the capital of the United States, on the 10th, and hoped that Japan can be excluded from the Trump administration's plan to impose tariffs on imported goods such as automobiles and steel. At a press conference after the talks, Muto said he had "not talked about exemptions." The 25% steel and aluminum tariffs that the U.S. government will launch on the 12th are likely to include Japan. Muto revealed that he emphasized the contribution of Japanese companies to investment and employment in the United States, and confirmed that Japan and the United States will continue to maintain close consultations in the future. In addition, the two sides may have exchanged views on the plan of Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel in a stalemate.

5. Germany's Green Party expects to reach a defense spending deal this week

Germany's Green Party is ready to negotiate with Chancellor-designate Merz's next governing coalition on defense spending and believes that a deal is likely to be reached by the end of the week. "We do need Europe to speed up defense spending," Franziska Brantner, the co-leader of the Green Party, said on Tuesday that the defense bill proposed by Conservatives and the SPD was very narrow in scope and didn’t include intelligence or support for Ukraine.

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