March 14 Macroeconomic Index:RMB appreciation expectations and stock market stability confidence, 6G industry development accelerated; international attention to economic recession risks and new geopolitical trends

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated upward, and there may still be room for appreciation in the short term according to the analysis

2. Economic Daily: The determination to stabilize the stock market is confidence

3. China is accelerating the development of the 6G industry

4. The deposit interest rates of many banks are inverted and may fall further in the future

5. 15 Departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: By 2030, the compliance service system for small and medium-sized enterprises will be basically formed

 International News

1. Recession fears are rising, and U.S. corporate bond spreads hit a six-month high

2. The U.S. Secretary of State said that the U.S.-Ukraine talks involved the issue of territorial concessions by the Ukrainian side

3. Agency: The global IT budget is expected to reach $12 trillion by 2031

4. Economic pressure for a ceasefire? Trump revealed that the U.S. team is heading to Russia

5. Poland demanded that the United States deploy nuclear weapons in Poland

Domestic News

1. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated upward, and there may still be room for appreciation in the short term according to the analysis

Recently, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has shown a fluctuating upward trend. As of the close of trading on March 12, the onshore yuan rose 0.54% against the US dollar in March, rebounding from near the "7.3" mark to around the "7.2" level. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that in recent times, the US dollar and US stocks have fallen sharply, behind which a series of recent US economic data, including consumption, have fallen short of expectations. Against the backdrop of the sharp depreciation of the US dollar and the basic stability of the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar, the exchange rate of the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar has risen steadily recently. In the short term, the risk of US dollar volatility will increase, and the RMB may still have some room for appreciation.

2. Economic Daily: The determination to stabilize the stock market is confidence

The article points out that creating optimistic and stable social expectations requires a stable stock market. China's stock market is huge, with more than 200 million shareholders, 700 million people, and more than 5,000 listed companies, which are related to thousands of households and industries. The smooth operation of the stock market can stabilize the "money bags" of the majority of investors and listed companies, effectively release the wealth effect, form a positive feedback mechanism for the economy, and then improve expectations, boost confidence, and promote the formation of a positive and optimistic development situation in the whole society.

3. China is accelerating the development of the 6G industry

At present, the global 6G technology research and development has entered the stage of key technology research from conceptual exploration, and countries are accelerating the layout around the 2030 commercial goal, and China is also accelerating the development of the 6G industry. Ding Haiyu, Vice President of China Mobile Research Institute, said that starting from this year, 6G should be said to have entered the first year of standardization, and the first standardized 6G standard project was established in the second half of last year. This year, the standardization of 6G should be in full swing, and more in-depth research on key 6G technologies and related scenarios in the future will be promoted.

4. The deposit interest rates of many banks are inverted and may fall further in the future

Recently, the deposit interest rates of many banks have been inverted. ICBC's 3-year fixed interest rate is 1.9%, and 5-year interest rate is only 1.5%; CCB 3-year 1.9%, 5-year 1.55%; China CITIC Bank 3-year 1.9%, 5-year 1.6%; China Merchants Bank has a 1-year tenor of 1.6%, a 3-year tenor of 1.95%, and a 5-year tenor of 1.55%. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, pointed out that banks' research and judgment on interest rate trends has led to lower medium and long-term deposit interest rates, and some small and medium-sized banks have raised short-term interest rates to alleviate liquidity pressure. Deposit rates are likely to fall further in the future.

5. 15 Departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: By 2030, the compliance service system for small and medium-sized enterprises will be basically formed

By 2030, the compliance development environment for small and medium-sized enterprises will be further optimized, the compliance service system for small and medium-sized enterprises will be basically formed, enterprises will basically have the awareness and ability of compliance management to meet the requirements of high-quality development, the level of compliance operation in accordance with the law will be significantly improved, and compliance will become an important part of the core competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises.

International News

1. Recession fears are rising, and U.S. corporate bond spreads hit a six-month high

The spread between U.S. corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest level since September this week, suggesting growing fears of a recession and a global trade war. U.S. investment-grade corporate bond spreads reached 94 basis points on Tuesday, and junk bond spreads widened to 322 basis points, both highest since Sept. 18, according to the ICE BofA Corporate Index.

2. The U.S. Secretary of State said that the U.S.-Ukraine talks involved the issue of territorial concessions by the Ukrainian side

U. S. Secretary of State Rubio said on the 12th that the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations discussed the issue of Ukrainian territorial concessions during talks in Saudi Arabia a few days ago. The official website of the U.S. Department of State released the full text of Rubio's interview with the media during his stay in Ireland. A reporter asked whether the US-Ukraine-Saudi talks talked about territorial concessions, and Rubio said: “Yes, we discussed it.” But Rubio made it clear that "there will be no disclosure of what was negotiated." He said that most of the U.S.-Ukraine talks were about the negotiation process, not specific terms.

3. Agency: The global IT budget is expected to reach $12 trillion by 2031

According to Omdia's latest research, the global IT budget is expected to reach $12 trillion by 2031, of which $8.2 trillion will be spent on IT investments and the remaining $3.8 trillion will be allocated to staff costs and other operating expenses. The agency predicts that IT budgets as a percentage of business revenues will continue to grow, from 4.2% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2031; Applications will remain the largest IT budget category, adding $1.3 trillion over the period.

4. Economic pressure for a ceasefire? Trump revealed that the U.S. team is heading to Russia

White House Press Secretary Levitt confirmed to the media on the 12th that U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East will visit Russia this week to discuss with the Russian side the U.S. proposal for a 30-day temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. On the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. could exert economic pressure on Russia if necessary.

5. Poland demanded that the United States deploy nuclear weapons in Poland

According to a report by Reuters, citing the Financial Times today (March 13), Polish President Duda asked the United States to deploy nuclear weapons on Polish territory as a means of deterring Russia. According to a report in the Financial Times, Duda has recently held discussions with Kellogg, the U.S. government's special envoy for Russia and Ukraine.

Domestic Macro Economy Index