March 19 Macroeconomic Index:The domestic economy is improving, with optimistic GDP growth in the first quarter; the international situation is complex, with the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and regional conflicts intertwined

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Domestic News

1. National Energy Administration: Electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 8.6% year-on-year in February

2. China's GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to usher in a "good start"

3. Local governments intensively disclosed the financial data of the first two months, and the revenue generally increased

4. China Housing Association: The 2025 real estate market report meeting and the national first-class qualification real estate development enterprise symposium will be held on March 27-28

5. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document to guide the construction of a digital energy and carbon management center

 International News

1. Trump: Many contents of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement have been agreed

2. Israeli’s air strikes in Gaza have killed at least 356 people

3. Goldman Sachs: Japan's wage growth must further accelerate to achieve the central bank's inflation path target

4. Russian military officer: has taken control of almost all settlements in the Kursk region

5. Moody's warns of U.S. tariffs hitting Southeast Asian companies

Domestic News

1. National Energy Administration: Electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 8.6% year-on-year in February

National Energy Administration: In February, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 743.4 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. In terms of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 9.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 462.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 142 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 129.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. From January to February, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 1,556.4 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, of which the industrial power generation above designated size was 1,492.1 billion kilowatt hours. In terms of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 20.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 963.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 298 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 274 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%.

2. China's GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to usher in a "good start"

The CITIC Securities Research Report said that from January to February this year, China's industrial and service production achieved rapid growth, but the data showed that domestic demand was still weak, and the prosperity of external demand has also declined, and the supply and demand pattern needs to be further optimized. From the perspective of production, the growth rate of industrial added value in January and February exceeded market expectations, and the main driving force came from the transportation equipment, metal products and equipment manufacturing industry, and the service industry also maintained a high growth rate, and the prosperity of the modern service industry was particularly bright. From the demand side, the growth rate of investment in January and February significantly exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the bright start of infrastructure investment, the continued resilience of manufacturing investment, and the narrowing of the decline in real estate investment.

3. Local governments intensively disclosed the financial data of the first two months, and the revenue generally increased

In the first two months of this year, the economy operated smoothly, and fiscal revenues generally increased. The reporter combed through the public data and found that in the first two months of this year, the general public budget revenue of the local government generally increased. According to data from the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Finance, in the first two months of this year, the general public budget revenue of Jiangsu Province reached 243.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, of which the core tax revenue reached 189.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. According to data from the Sichuan Provincial Department of Finance, Sichuan's general public budget revenue in the first two months of this year was 104.32 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5 percent.

4. China Housing Association: The 2025 real estate market report meeting and the national first-class qualification real estate development enterprise symposium will be held on March 27-28

According to the official account of the China Housing Association, in order to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of the 2025 National "Two Sessions" and the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference, promote real estate development enterprises to understand the real estate market trend under the macroeconomic background, explore new models of real estate development, and promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, the China Real Estate Association is scheduled to hold the 2025 Real Estate Market Situation Report Conference and the National Symposium on Real Estate Development Enterprises with First-Class Qualification in Beijing from March 27 to 28, 2025.

5. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document to guide the construction of a digital energy and carbon management center

The reporter learned on the 18th that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued the "Guidelines for the Construction of Digital Energy and Carbon Management Centers for Industrial Enterprises and Parks" to strengthen the management of industrial energy conservation and carbon reduction, and support the construction of a complete system of carbon emission dual control system. According to the guidelines, industrial enterprises and parks can realize accurate measurement, refined control, intelligent decision-making and visual presentation of energy consumption and carbon emissions through the construction and operation of digital energy and carbon management centers, continuously improve energy conservation and carbon reduction management capabilities, effectively support the improvement of energy utilization efficiency and carbon emission reduction, and promote green and low-carbon transformation.

International News

1. Trump: Many contents of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement have been agreed

U.S. President Trump posted on the social media platform "Real Social" on the 17th that he would speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 18th to discuss ending the Ukraine crisis. Trump said many elements of the final agreement have been agreed upon, but there are still many issues that remain unresolved.

2. Israeli’s air strikes in Gaza have killed at least 356 people

Al Jazeera, citing sources in the Gaza Strip's medical sector, reported that Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip have killed at least 356 people. According to Israeli media sources, Israel has banned all people from passing through the Rafah crossing, which connects Egypt and the Gaza Strip.

3. Goldman Sachs: Japan's wage growth must further accelerate to achieve the central bank's inflation path target

Goldman Sachs economists said wages in Japan would need to grow by at least 3% over the next two years to meet the central bank's sustainable inflation target. Economists such as Akira Otani said in the report that nominal wages would have to grow by around 3%-3.1% in 2025 and 3.3%-3.4% the following year to be consistent with the inflation path envisioned by the Bank of Japan. The report highlights the need for stronger wage growth to fully establish a virtuous economic cycle of rising incomes and prices, which is a condition to support further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. According to annual data from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan's nominal wage growth rate in 2024 is 2.8%. Goldman Sachs economists said they still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at a pace of about twice a year, with the next time in July. They said that if the wage data deviates significantly from the trend calculated by Goldman Sachs based on the Bank of Japan's goal of stabilizing inflation, then the pace of rate hikes could be faster or slower.

4. Russian military officer: has taken control of almost all settlements in the Kursk region

On March 18, local time, Alaudinov, deputy head of the General Political Department of the Russian Armed Forces and commander of the "Ahmed" special forces, said that the Russian army's advance has achieved remarkable results, and almost all settlements in Kursk Oblast have been quickly controlled by the Russian side, and enemy have been eliminated.

5. Moody's warns of U.S. tariffs hitting Southeast Asian companies

Moody said that the Trump administration's planned tariffs pose "varying degrees of risk" to companies in Southeast and South Asia, with companies in the automotive, steel, chemicals and business services sectors being the most vulnerable to reduced demand and rising costs.

Domestic Macro Economy Index