March 18 Macroeconomic Index:The stability of domestic economic data and the layout of emerging industries have become the focus, while the volatility of international oil prices and geopolitical tensions have attracted attention.

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Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: From January to February, the employment situation was generally stable, and the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was stable

2. National Bureau of Statistics: In February, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities were generally stable and slightly lower than the previous month

3. National Bureau of Statistics: It is necessary to make greater efforts to stimulate the vitality of traditional industries, accelerate the cultivation and development of emerging industries, and actively deploy future industries

4. The National Bureau of Statistics responded that "CPI turned negative year-on-year and month-on-month in February": Overall, the moderate upward trend of CPI has not changed

5. The 8th China-UK Energy Dialogue was held, and the two sides clearly identified power market reform, power grids, and battery storage as key areas of cooperation

 International News

1. International oil prices may currently enter the bottom shock range

2. French Prime Minister: Europe must prepare for a possible trade war with the United States

3. U.S. Secretary of Defense: U.S. military will continue airstrikes until the Houthis stop their attacks

4. Japan intends to take the lead in deploying long-range missiles in Kyushu with a range of about 1,000 kilometers

5. Russia said that the Ukrainian army launched a large-scale drone attack on Astrakhan Oblast

Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: From January to February, the employment situation was generally stable, and the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was stable

From January to February, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.3 percent. In February, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.4 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The unemployment rate of the local registered labour force survey was 5.6%; The surveyed unemployment rate of the migrant labor force was 5.0%, of which the surveyed unemployment rate of the migrant agricultural household registration labor force was 5.1%. The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large cities and towns was 5.2 percent. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide were 47.1 hours.

2. National Bureau of Statistics: In February, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities were generally stable and slightly lower than the previous month

National Bureau of Statistics: In February, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities increased by 0.1% month-on-month, the same increase as the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen rose by 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, while Guangzhou fell by 0.2%. The sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month from a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Among them, Shenzhen rose by 0.3%, Beijing was unchanged, Shanghai and Guangzhou fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.

In February, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in second-tier cities remained unchaged from a 0.1% month-on-month increase in the previous month. Second-hand residential properties fell 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, while the sales prices of second-hand residential buildings decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as the previous month.

3. National Bureau of Statistics: It is necessary to make greater efforts to stimulate the vitality of traditional industries, accelerate the cultivation and development of emerging industries, and actively deploy future industries

Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that on the whole, since the beginning of this year, new quality productivity has been cultivated and expanded, and the development trend has continued to improve. The next step is to stimulate the vitality of traditional industries, accelerate the cultivation and development of emerging industries, and actively deploy future industries, promote the accelerated development of new quality productivity, and inject more new impetus into China's economic development.

4. The National Bureau of Statistics responded that "CPI turned negative year-on-year and month-on-month in February": Overall, the moderate upward trend of CPI has not changed

Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, responded to "CPI turned negative year-on-year and month-on-month in February", saying that if the impact of the Spring Festival is deducted, the CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year in February. At the same time, it should also be noted that the price of fresh vegetables fell year-on-year in February this year, and the price reduction promotion of automobile products pulled down the CPI increase in February. Due to the rain, snow and freezing weather in some areas in the same period last year, the price of fresh vegetables increased significantly, affected by the high base of the previous year, the price of fresh vegetables in February this year fell by 12.6% year-on-year, affecting the CPI year-on-year decline of about 0.31 percentage points. In February, the prices of fuel cars and new energy cars fell by 5% and 6% respectively, which affected the CPI by about 0.16 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, the moderate upward trend of CPI has not changed.

5. The 8th China-UK Energy Dialogue was held, and the two sides clearly identified power market reform, power grids, and battery storage as key areas of cooperation

On March 17, Wang Hongzhi, head of China's National Energy Administration, and Miliband, the UK's Cabinet Secretary for Energy Security and Net Zero Carbon, co-chaired the eighth China-UK Energy Dialogue in Beijing. The two sides had an in-depth exchange of views on clean energy technology, energy transition pathways, energy security, international energy governance and other topics. After the meeting, Wang Hongzhi and Miliband jointly signed the "China-UK Clean Energy Partnership Memorandum of Understanding", which clearly identifies electricity market reform and power grids, battery energy storage, offshore wind power, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), and clean, low-carbon and renewable hydrogen as key areas of cooperation. In conjunction with the dialogue, the two sides will also hold three side events, including the UK-China Electricity Market Symposium, the 10th Annual Working Meeting of the UK-China Offshore Wind Industry Cooperation Steering Committee and the 10th Anniversary Cooperation and Development Seminar, and the UK-China Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) Seminar in the Energy Sector, to exchange in-depth practices in related fields and explore practical cooperation opportunities.

International News

1. International oil prices may currently enter the bottom shock range

CITIC Securities said that the recent international oil prices have continued to fall and show a low-level shock trend, and we believe that international oil prices are currently entering the bottom shock range. From the perspective of commodity attributes, OPEC released crude oil production slightly, making the global crude oil supply and demand balance structure gradually move from last year's tight situation to loose direction, and under the influence of uncertainties such as recession trading and tariffs in the second quarter, oil prices as a whole may still show a range-bound trend. However, from the second quarter to the middle of the year, the "quasi-stagflation" trend we previously warned may gradually be verified and positive for the commodity market, and the commodity market will still be ranked as gold>copper > oil for the whole year. As far as the oil market is concerned, driven by factors such as inflation and economic fundamentals, and superimposed by periodic disturbances such as geopolitical factors, oil prices may stabilize and gradually recover slightly.

2. French Prime Minister: Europe must prepare for a possible trade war with the United States

French Prime Minister Beroux said on the 16th that Europe should not only deal with military threats, but also prepare for a possible trade war with the United States. At present, the United States and Europe have not reached a solution to the tariffs. Trade wars are just a last resort. Europe and the United States still have an opportunity to negotiate a solution to the situation.

3. U.S. Secretary of Defense: U.S. military will continue airstrikes until the Houthis stop their attacks

U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said on the 16th that the U.S. military will not stop air strikes unless the Yemeni Houthis stop their attacks on U.S. ships and drones. In an interview with the American Fox News channel, he said: “The operation will end as soon as the Houthis say, ‘We will stop firing at (American) ships and drones’,” he said. Until then, he said, the U.S. military will be "relentlessly" fighting the Houthis.

4. Japan intends to take the lead in deploying long-range missiles in Kyushu with a range of about 1,000 kilometers

The Japanese Government plans to make Kyushu the first place to deploy land-based long-range missiles, and has already begun to explore this. According to Japanese media reports, Japan plans to begin deploying long-range missiles that can be used to destroy missile bases and other counter-attack capabilities in other countries' borders by the end of fiscal 2025. The Government of Japan believes that it is necessary to strengthen the defense system in the southwest region as a matter of priority, and will carefully coordinate the understanding of the local population regarding the specific deployment sites.

5. Russia said that the Ukrainian army launched a large-scale drone attack on Astrakhan Oblast

On the 17th local time, Igor Babushkin, governor of Russia's Astrakhan region, reported that the Ukrainian armed forces carried out another large-scale drone attack on energy facilities and other targets in the region in the early morning of the same day, resulting in one injury, and the injured have been sent to the hospital. In addition, the fall of the wreckage of a Ukrainian drone hit by Russian air defense systems caused a fire. The fire has been brought under control, and Russian emergency personnel are now working on the scene. The Ukrainian side has not responded to this for the time being.

Domestic Macro Economy Index