November 12th Macroeconomic Index: China's Exports Surge 12.7% Year-On-Year in October, Imports Decline

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Domestic News

1. China's exports in October increased by 12.7% year-on-year, while imports fell by 2.3%

2. The central bank held a symposium on foreign financial institutions: continue to adhere to the implementation of supportive monetary policy

3. IDC: The overall market size of China's digital transformation will exceed 730 billion US dollars in 2028

4. VAT invoice data show that the sales revenue of national enterprises continued to grow month-on-month in October

5. Customs: In the first 10 months of this year, China's imports and exports to the Belt and Road countries increased by 6.2%

 International News

1. The US media estimated that Trump won more than half of the electoral votes to lock in the victory of the 2024 presidential election

2. EU institutions: 2024 will be the hottest year on record

3. The Israeli army calls on civilians to evacuate immediately from the designated area in Beirut, Lebanon

4. Jordanian king: Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon could expand the conflict

5. The German FDP withdrew from the coalition government

Domestic News

1. China's exports in October increased by 12.7% year-on-year, while imports fell by 2.3%

On Thursday, November 7, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in US dollar terms, China's exports in October increased by 12.7% year-on-year to US$309.06 billion, jumping to a 27-month high, and the previous value increased by 2.4%; Imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year to US$213.34 billion, up 0.5% from the previous value; The trade surplus was 95.73 billion US dollars, compared with 81.71 billion US dollars in the previous year, the third highest in history. China's exports rose sharply in dollar terms in October, while imports slowed, and imports of iron ore, coal and natural gas increased from January to October. In the first 10 months of 2024, the total value of China's import and export of goods was 36.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Among them, exports were 20.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%; imports were 15.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2 percent; The trade surplus was 5.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.6 percent. In dollar terms, in the first 10 months, the total value of China's imports and exports was 5.07 trillion US dollars, an increase of 3.7%. Among them, exports were 2.93 trillion US dollars, an increase of 5.1%; imports were 2.14 trillion US dollars, an increase of 1.7%; The trade surplus was 785.27 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.8 percent.

2. The central bank held a symposium on foreign financial institutions: continue to adhere to the implementation of supportive monetary policy

In order to thoroughly implement the important arrangements of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee on promoting high-level opening up, on November 6, the People's Bank of China held a forum for foreign-funded financial institutions to listen to the opinions and suggestions of foreign-funded financial institutions, and to study the work related to further optimizing the business environment and promoting the high-level opening up of the financial industry. At the symposium, Pan Gongsheng gave an in-depth explanation of China's current monetary policy stance and considerations related to the adjustment of the monetary policy framework, introduced the progress of the high-level opening up of the financial industry and the package of financial incremental policies, listened to opinions and suggestions, and exchanged responses to issues of concern to various institutions. Foreign financial institutions believe that since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has made positive progress in deepening the reform and opening up of the financial industry, optimizing the business environment, and improving the management of cross-border financial data flow. The recently introduced package of incremental financial policies has strongly promoted high-quality economic development, maintained the stability of the financial market, and significantly increased the expectations and confidence of foreign investors in the Chinese market. It is hoped that the communication and interaction between policies and the market will be further strengthened, and efforts will continue to be made to promote the implementation of various incremental policies.

3. IDC: The overall market size of China's digital transformation will exceed 730 billion US dollars in 2028

The International Data Corporation (IDC) recently released the 2024 V2 version of the Worldwide Digital Transformation Spending Guide. According to IDC, global investment in digital transformation exceeded $2.1 trillion in 2023 and is expected to reach $4.4 trillion in 2028, with a five-year compound growth rate (CAGR) of 15.4% from 2023 to 2028. With the vigorous development of the global digital transformation market and the continuous expansion of the application scope of cloud computing, artificial intelligence, big data, 5G and other technologies, the digital transformation of global enterprises has come to a stage of continuous development, which has also prompted enterprises to continuously increase their investment in digital transformation. IDC predicts that China's digital transformation spending is expected to reach US$733 billion in 2028, accounting for about 16.7% of the global total, with a five-year compound growth rate of about 15.6%, which is higher than the overall global growth rate of digital transformation.

4. VAT invoice data show that the sales revenue of national enterprises continued to grow month-on-month in October

According to the VAT invoice data released by the State Administration of Taxation on November 7, in October, the sales revenue of enterprises across the country increased by 3 and 1.3 percentage points respectively compared with August and September while achieving year-on-year growth. The invoice data reflects the following highlights of economic operation: the central and western regions have grown rapidly, and some key provinces have obvious support. In October, the sales revenue in the central and western regions increased by 1.4% and 1.7% year-on-year respectively, an increase of 3.2 and 1.1 percentage points respectively compared with the growth rate in September. In terms of regions, the sales revenue of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta increased by 1.4% and 2.8% year-on-year respectively, an increase of 1.2 and 1.3 percentage points respectively compared with the growth rate in September. In terms of provinces, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan and other major economic provinces grew relatively fast, with sales revenue increasing by 4.3%, 2.8%, 2.9% and 2.5% year-on-year respectively.

5. Customs: In the first 10 months of this year, China's imports and exports to the Belt and Road countries increased by 6.2%

Customs statistics show that in the first 10 months of this year, China's imports and exports to the "Belt and Road" countries were 16.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%. Among them, imports and exports to ASEAN were 5.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%, accounting for 15.7% of China's total import and export value in the same period, and ASEAN continued to maintain its position as China's largest trading partner. In the same period, imports and exports to the European Union, the United States and South Korea were 4.64 trillion yuan, 4.01 trillion yuan and 1.91 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 1.2%, 4.4% and 6.7% respectively.

International News

1. The US media estimated that Trump won more than half of the electoral votes to lock in the victory of the 2024 presidential election

Haitong Securities Research Report believes that the U.S. election is landed, and Trump's regime may be more negative for crude oil. 1. The geopolitical risk premium is likely to decline. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict eases, it may reduce the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil; 2. Increase supply. Under the interest rate cut cycle, the implementation of corresponding policies will increase inflationary pressure, increase crude oil supply, and strengthen the demand for inflation control; 3. Trade frictions may increase, leading to a decline in global demand; 4. If necessary, oil producing countries may be pressured to increase production.

2. EU institutions: 2024 will be the hottest year on record

The Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union's climate monitoring agency, said on the 7th that temperature data for the first 10 months of 2024 showed that this year would be the hottest year since records began in 1850. The global average temperature for the first 10 months of 2024 was 0.71 degrees Celsius above the average temperature for the same period from 1991 to 2020, the highest on record, and 0.16 degrees Celsius higher than for the same period in 2023. In fact, it's certain that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, unless the average temperature drops to close to 0 degrees Celsius for the rest of the year.

3. The Israeli army calls on civilians to evacuate immediately from the designated area in Beirut, Lebanon

On the night of the 6th local time, the Israel Defense Forces called on civilians in four designated areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, to evacuate immediately before the air strikes. IDF Arabic spokesman Adra'i posted a social media statement and map calling on civilians to stay at least 500 metres away from the airstrikes.

4. Jordanian king: Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon could expand the conflict

On the 6th local time, King Abdullah II of Jordan said when meeting with British Prime Minister Starmer in London, England, that Israel's continued military operations against the Gaza Strip and Lebanon could lead to further expansion of the conflict. During their talks, Abdullah II and Starmer reaffirmed the need for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and called for increased humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip and for aid to be ensured. The parties stressed that Israel's decision to ban the activities of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) would exacerbate the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Both sides warned of tensions in the West Bank and stressed the need to cease all acts of violence.

5. The German FDP withdrew from the coalition government

The parliamentary leader of the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) announced on the 6th that all the ministers of the FDP would withdraw from the coalition government composed of the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the FDP. Earlier in the day, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed FDP Chairman Edner Lindner from his post as Finance Minister.

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