November 7th Macroeconomic Index: Offshore Yuan Rises for Second Day, Private Economy Reaches 180 Million Entities

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The offshore yuan rose for the second day in a row, and the short-term implied volatility continued to soar

2. As of the end of September, the total number of private economic entities in China reached 180,864,800

3. Xiong Jijun, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Encouraging the merger and reorganization of high-quality enterprises of new energy vehicles

4. Ministry of Commerce: Oppose all forms of decoupling and chain breaking

5. China issued the National Ecological Protection and Restoration Bulletin for the first time

 International News

1. The US media estimated that Trump won more than half of the electoral votes to lock in the victory of the 2024 presidential election

2. The U.S. dollar index expanded its gains, and spot gold and silver continued to decline

3. The number of births in Japan may fall below 700,000 for the first time this year

4. The global manufacturing PMI in October was 48.8%, and the global economic recovery is still weak

5. Israeli public protest against Israel's dismissal of defense minister: Israel's biggest threat comes from the government

Domestic News

1. The offshore yuan rose for the second day in a row, and the short-term implied volatility continued to soar

The offshore yuan (CNH) was quoted at 7.1017 yuan against the US dollar at 05:59 Beijing time, up 104 points from the end of New York on Monday, and the overall trading was in the range of 7.1173-7.1010 yuan during the day, approaching the price of 7.0956 yuan at the end of trading on October 14. The RMB's short-term implied volatility continued to surge, with both overnight and one-week volatility hitting record highs. USD/CNH overnight implied volatility rose to nearly 30% on Tuesday, hitting a record closing high; USD/CNH's one-week implied volatility rose to a record high of 15.565% at one point.

2. As of the end of September, the total number of private economic entities in China reached 180,864,800

According to CCTV News, it was learned from the State Administration for Market Regulation that the number of private economic entities in China continued to increase steadily. As of the end of September 2024, the total number of private economic entities in China will reach 180,864,800, accounting for 96.37% of the total number of business entities, a year-on-year increase of 3.93%, and an increase of more than 4 times in more than 10 years.

3. Xiong Jijun, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Encouraging the merger and reorganization of high-quality enterprises of new energy vehicles

On November 6, Xiong Jijun, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out at the sub-forum of the 7th Hongqiao International Economic Forum "The Future of Global New Energy Vehicles" that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further optimize the development environment, encourage high-quality enterprises to merge and reorganize, become bigger and stronger, promote the improvement of industrial concentration, and work with relevant departments to crack down on unfair competition, create a fair and orderly market environment, and continue to improve the system standards for functional safety, network security, and data security of new energy vehicles. At the same time, it will compile guidance on the battery swap mode of new energy vehicles, study policy measures to accelerate the electrification of commercial vehicles, and promote the comprehensive marketization of new energy vehicles.

4. Ministry of Commerce: Oppose all forms of decoupling and chain breaking

Tang Wenhong, assistant to the Ministry of Commerce of China, said at the 7th Shanghai Hongqiao International Economic Forum on the 6th that China has a clear stand against protectionism and various forms of "decoupling and chains breaking". He said that at present, economic globalization is encountering headwinds, the global industrial and supply chain is accelerating the restructuring, and strengthening openness and cooperation has become the common expectation of the global business community. China will further deepen the reform of the foreign investment and foreign investment management system, and promote international cooperation in industrial and supply chains.

5. China issued the National Ecological Protection and Restoration Bulletin for the first time

The National Ecological Protection and Restoration Bulletin 2024 was officially released. This is the first time that China has comprehensively reflected the national ecological protection and restoration work in the form of a communiqué. The communiqué integrated the basic national conditions of the natural ecology of land and sea integration since the founding of the People's Republic of China 75 years ago, announced the major actions of ecological restoration implemented by "real money", and announced that China's national ecological protection and restoration "blueprint" from the top of the mountain to the ocean, from the plateau to the plain, and from the national to the local level has basically taken shape.

International News

1. The US media estimated that Trump won more than half of the electoral votes to lock in the victory of the 2024 presidential election

According to the latest estimates released by many American media such as The Hill and Fox News, the Republican presidential candidate Trump will receive more than half of the electoral votes and is expected to lock in the victory of the US presidential election. The U.S. presidential election adopts the Electoral College system, in which the 50 states distribute electoral votes proportionally to their population, and at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes are considered victorious.

2. The U.S. dollar index expanded its gains, and spot gold and silver continued to decline

The Bloomberg Dollar Index extended gains to hit a one-year high, rising 1.6% to its biggest daily gain since March 2020; EUR/USD fell 2% on the day and is now trading at 1.0710. Spot gold fell back below $2,710 an ounce, down 1.23% on the day. Spot silver fell more than 3% during the day and is now trading at $31.64 an ounce.

3. The number of births in Japan may fall below 700,000 for the first time this year

The Japanese government released data on the newborn population in the first half of this year on the 5th, a decrease of about 6% from the same period last year, continuing to show a downward trend. The media speculates that the number of newborns in Japan will fall below 700,000 for the first time this year. According to demographic statistics released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of newborns in Japan from January to June this year was 329998, a decrease of 6.3% from the same period last year. This figure does not include foreign nationals living in Japan. Based on this trend, the Japanese media generally expect that the number of newborns will be less than 700,000 for the first time this year. Last year, there were about 727,000 newborns in Japan, a record low for eight consecutive years.

4. The global manufacturing PMI in October was 48.8%, and the global economic recovery is still weak

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index for October. According to the data, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index has been around 49% for four consecutive months, and the global economic recovery is still weak. The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 48.8% in October, unchanged from the previous month and hovering around 49% for four consecutive months. The composite index changed, and the recovery of the global manufacturing industry in October was little changed from the previous month, which means that the global economy maintained a weak recovery trend.

5. Israeli public protest against Israel's dismissal of defense minister: Israel's biggest threat comes from the government

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a video statement on November 5 local time, saying that he dismissed Israeli Defense Minister Gallant. That night, thousands of people took to the streets to hold protest demonstrations. Protesters say Netanyahu is using the lives of Israeli soldiers and children to maintain his ruling coalition and that Israel's biggest threat is not from Iran, not from Hezbollah or Hamas, but from the Israeli government.

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