November 1st Macroeconomic Index: China's Total Social Logistics Exceeds 250 Trillion Yuan, Manufacturing PMI Price Index Rebounds Significantly

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Domestic News

1. National Energy Administration: the promotion of the "Belt and Road" Green Energy Cooperation Action Plan (2024-2029) has achieved practical results.

2. In the first three quarters, China's total social logistics exceeded 250 trillion yuan

3. National Bureau of Statistics: The manufacturing PMI price index rebounded significantly in October

4. China's gold ETF holdings crossed the 100-ton mark

5. The total mileage is more than 6 million kilometers! China's comprehensive strength in transportation has jumped sharply

 International News

1. The U.S. economy is heading for a soft landing, and the Fed does not need to cut interest rates sharply for the time being

2. In the first nine months of this year, South Korea received a total of 12.14 million foreign tourists, a year-on-year increase of 58.7%

3. The UN Security Council will discuss the issue of supplying weapons to Ukraine

4. In the first nine months of this year, the number of foreign tourists entering Russia increased by more than 40% year-on-year

5. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: It is necessary to assess the impact of the weakness of the yen and its background

Domestic News

1. National Energy Administration: the promotion of the "Belt and Road" Green Energy Cooperation Action Plan (2024-2029) has achieved practical results.

Dong Xiang, Deputy Director of the International Cooperation Department of the National Energy Administration, said at a press conference of the National Energy Administration on the 31st that in the next step, the National Energy Administration will continue to implement the new strategy of energy security, and under the guidance of the Belt and Road Initiative, promote the "Belt and Road" Green Energy Cooperation Action Plan (2024-2029) (hereinafter referred to as the "Action Plan") to achieve practical results, actively build a new win-win model of green and low-carbon energy transformation, and promote the establishment of a fair, just, balanced and inclusive global energy governance system.

2. In the first three quarters, China's total social logistics exceeded 250 trillion yuan

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in the first three quarters of this year, China's total social logistics was 258.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% at comparable prices. From the perspective of composition, the total logistics of agricultural products was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% at comparable prices; the total logistics of industrial products was 227.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%; the total logistics value of imported goods was 13.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.2%; the total amount of renewable resources logistics was 3.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1%; The total logistics volume of units and residents was 9.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.6%.

3. National Bureau of Statistics: The manufacturing PMI price index rebounded significantly in October

Affected by the recent rise in the price of some bulk commodities and other factors, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 53.4% and 49.9% respectively, up 8.3 and 5.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall level of manufacturing market prices improved significantly. From the perspective of industries, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of the main raw materials in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries have risen to a high prosperity range of more than 60.0%, and the purchase price of raw materials and product sales prices in related industries have risen more.

4. China's gold ETF holdings crossed the 100-ton mark

According to the World Gold Council, as of 25 October 2024, China's total holdings of gold-backed ETFs exceeded 100 tonnes. Despite small outflows in Q3, total holdings and AUM surged by 49% and 91% year-on-year in the first three quarters, respectively. According to the analysis, the above phenomenon is driven by the strong performance of the RMB gold price and the rising demand of investors to hedge against uncertainty in other assets.

5. The total mileage is more than 6 million kilometers! China's comprehensive strength in transportation has jumped sharply

Wu Chungeng, Director of the Comprehensive Planning Department of the Ministry of Transport, said that in the five years since the issuance and implementation of the "Outline for the Construction of a Transportation Power", the transportation industry has taken the lead in the construction of a transportation power to promote the development of China's transportation and made major achievements, accelerated the construction of a transportation power to achieve a good start and entered a new stage of development. The transport infrastructure network is more complete. The total mileage of China's comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network exceeds 6 million kilometers.

International News

1. The U.S. economy is heading for a soft landing, and the Fed does not need to cut interest rates sharply for the time being

According to the CICC Research Report, the real GDP of the United States in the third quarter of 2024 will be 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3.0%, and also a slight decline from 3.0% in the second quarter, but it is still a bright answer. In terms of sub-items, strong personal consumption expenditure, expanding corporate equipment investment, and faster exports and government spending indicate that U.S. economic growth remains healthy. What are still relatively weak are real estate investment and construction investment, suggesting that high interest rates are still having a dampening effect. In addition, inflation fell further in the third quarter, which means that the US economy is heading for a soft landing. We don't think the Fed needs to cut rates aggressively for the time being, with a 25bp cut expected next week, and whether or not to skip a rate cut in December will depend on how inflation progresses.

2. In the first nine months of this year, South Korea received a total of 12.14 million foreign tourists, a year-on-year increase of 58.7%

South Korea received 1.46 million foreign tourists in September this year, an increase of 33.4% year-on-year and 0.3% from the same period before the epidemic (2019), the Korea Tourism Organization said on October 31. This is the first time since the epidemic that the number of foreign tourists received by South Korea in a single month has exceeded the same period in 2019. By country and region, Chinese mainland received the most tourists, with 423,000.

3. The UN Security Council will discuss the issue of supplying weapons to Ukraine

At the request of Russia, the UN Security Council will meet on October 31 local time to discuss the issue of Western arms deliveries to Ukraine and their impact on the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. Regarding the possible further "relaxation" of restrictions on the use of weapons by the United States and the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said that the essence of the problem is not the possibility of Ukraine using Western long-range weapons, but whether NATO countries are "directly involved" in this conflict. The direct involvement of NATO countries would mean that they went to war with Russia. The Russian side will make relevant decisions based on the threats it faces.

4. In the first nine months of this year, the number of foreign tourists entering Russia increased by more than 40% year-on-year

On October 31, local time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshenko said that from January to September this year, the number of foreign tourists entering Russia increased by 42% compared with the same period last year, exceeding 3 million. The Republic of Sakha, the Amur Region, the Khabarovsk Region, the Republic of Karelia, the Murmansk Region, the St. Petersburg Region, the Irkutsk Region, the Tomsk Region and the Republic of Tuva grew rapidly.

5. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: It is necessary to assess the impact of the weakness of the yen and its background

Governor of the Bank of Japan: To assess the impact of the weakness of the yen and its background. CPI data shows that the trend of companies passing on costs to prices has spread to the services sector. A comprehensive evaluation of the policy will be conducted at each meeting. The July rate hike will not have a significant negative impact on the economy. The content of the policy evaluation does not have an immediate impact on the policy. The policy review will include a discussion on the neutral rate.

Domestic Macro Economy Index