November 4th Macroeconomic Index: China's Manufacturing PMI Returns to Expansion, Real Estate Market Surges

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Domestic News

1. The 12th Session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress was held in Beijing from November 4 to 8

2. Ministry of Commerce: we will work with relevant departments to launch a number of new policies in the field of consumption

3. In October, Caixin China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, returning to the expansion range

4. Galaxy Securities: China's economic growth center is expected to return to the goal

5. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: "Silver Oct." has surpassed "Golden Sep." for this year's real estate market, which is the first time since 2007.

 International News

1. IMF: The economies of GCC countries show resilience

2. Saudi Foreign Minister: Israel continues to put forward new conditions to obstruct the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza

3. US Secretary of State: Israeli-Lebanese Ceasefire Talks Have Made "Good Progress"

4. The EU imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and large European car companies "went all out" to oppose it

5. Economists: The biggest impact of hurricanes in the United States may be in restaurants and retail

Domestic News

1. The 12th Session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress was held in Beijing from November 4 to 8

The Legislative Affairs Commission of the NPC Standing Committee held a press conference for its spokesmen, at which it was reported that the 12th meeting of the 14th NPC Standing Committee was held in Beijing from 4 to 8 November. The Standing Committee will deliberate on the draft of the Preschool Education Law, the draft revision of the Law on the Protection of Cultural Relics, the draft revision of the Mineral Resources Law, the draft of the Energy Law, the draft revision of the Anti-Money Laundering Law, and the draft amendment to the Supervision Law of the Standing Committees of the People's Congresses at all levels. deliberating the motion of the chairmanship meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on submitting for deliberation the draft amendment to the Representative Law; The State Council submitted for deliberation the draft amendments to the Arbitration Law, the Maritime Law, and the Science and Technology Popularization Law, and the draft decision on extending the authorization of the State Council to temporarily adjust the application of the relevant provisions of the Metrology Law in pilot cities for business environment innovation.

2. Ministry of Commerce: we will work with relevant departments to launch a number of new policies in the field of consumption

Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, introduced at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that the Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to launch a number of new policies in the field of consumption. For example, in the near future, we will study and introduce policies to promote the first economy, promote the high-quality development of the wholesale and retail industry, support 20 cities such as Shanghai and Tianjin to carry out the pilot construction of a modern commercial and trade circulation system, carry out the pilot reform of automobile circulation and consumption, and promote a special action plan for healthy consumption.

3. In October, Caixin China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, returning to the expansion range

Judging from the sub-data of Caixin China's manufacturing PMI, the supply of manufacturing industry has increased, and demand has turned from contraction to slight expansion. The manufacturing new orders index rose to its highest level since July in October. According to the sample companies, the fundamentals of demand have improved and business development initiatives have been effective, supporting the recovery of new business volume. Among the three major categories, orders from manufacturers in the intermediate category grew rapidly, followed by consumer goods.

4. Galaxy Securities: China's economic growth center is expected to return to the goal

According to the research report of China Galaxy Securities, looking ahead: the PMI in October showed a positive situation brought about by the comprehensive strengthening of the demand side and the recovery of market confidence after the Politburo meeting in September. At present, in the case of gradual weakening of external demand, the timely keeping up of domestic demand supports the smooth operation of the industrial economy, promotes the continuous recovery of enterprise confidence, and increases the ability to resist risks in the face of global geopolitical uncertainty.

5. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: "Silver Oct." has surpassed "Golden Sep." for this year's real estate market, which is the first time since 2007.

According to the data of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the sales area of commercial housing in Silver October this year exceeded that of Golden September month-on-month. The real estate market has always had the saying of "golden nine and silver ten", describing the peak sales season in the second half of this year. The market changes can be seen in the month-on-month data. In October, the transaction volume of new commercial housing online signatures nationwide increased by 6.7% month-on-month; The transaction volume of second-hand housing online increased by 4.5% month-on-month; The total number of transactions of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing increased by 5.8% month-on-month. September is the end of the third quarter, and real estate companies will fight for sales volume. October is the first month of the fourth quarter, generally affected by the overdraft of the impulse in September, this year's "silver ten" more than the "golden nine" is very rare, is the first time since 2007 "silver ten" more than the "golden nine".

International News

1. IMF: The economies of GCC countries show resilience

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report released in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on October 31 that despite the risks posed by the recent conflict in the Middle East, the economies of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) have shown strong resilience and the impact will be limited. In 2024 and 2025, the non-oil sector in the GCC countries is expected to grow by 3.7 percent and 4 percent, respectively, according to the report. The GCC countries will continue to work on economic diversification to maintain economic stability.

2. Saudi Foreign Minister: Israel continues to put forward new conditions to obstruct the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal said at a forum event in Riyadh on October 31 local time that in the past, there had been many reports that "the Gaza ceasefire agreement is close to being reached", but in the end it was disappointing. Faisal said that in most cases, the negotiations eventually broke down because the Israeli side put forward new conditions, including Israel's insistence on stationing troops in parts of the Gaza Strip. Over the past few months, several rounds of ceasefire talks have been held in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and Cairo, but no agreement has been reached to end the conflict.

3. US Secretary of State: Israeli-Lebanese Ceasefire Talks Have Made "Good Progress"

On October 31, local time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that negotiators from all sides had made "good progress" in the ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon Hezbollah. Blinken said at a press conference on the same day: "Based on my recent visit to the Middle East and the work that is currently underway, we have made good progress in the negotiations. On the evening of October 29 and 30 local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Prime Minister Mikati of the Lebanese caretaker government respectively expressed their stance on ending the Lebanese-Israeli conflict, and both expressed their willingness to ceasefire. At the same time, on the evening of 30 July, the Israeli media also disclosed a draft of the Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire agreement allegedly drafted by the United States.

4. The EU imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and large European car companies "went all out" to oppose it

On October 29, local time, the European Union announced the final results of the anti-subsidy investigation on electric vehicles in China, and decided to impose a five-year countervailing duty on electric vehicles imported from China. The EU's move sparked widespread opposition in Germany. People in the German auto industry generally believe that this will not only have a negative impact on EU-China exchanges and economic and trade cooperation, drag down the transformation and upgrading of the European auto industry, but also hinder the green transformation that Europe urgently needs to accelerate. German automotive industry insiders emphasize that the sustainable development of electric vehicles must rely on collaborative innovation on a global scale, rather than unilateral protectionist policies. As a major player in the electric vehicle market and innovation, strengthening cooperation with China and promoting wider market integration will help improve the competitiveness of European automakers and promote the transformation and upgrading of the industry.

5. Economists: The biggest impact of hurricanes in the United States may be in restaurants and retail

Economists are divided on the extent to which hurricanes have dragged down job growth, with estimates ranging from 25,000 to 70,000. Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander Capital Markets, said, “Typically, when a business closes due to a natural disaster, salaried workers are still paid, but part-time workers are not. As a result, the greatest impact is likely to occur in industries with a high proportion of part-time jobs, such as restaurants and retail. However, it can be difficult to detect unless the impact is significant.”

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