Atural Rubber Market Price Analysis on June 17

Analysis of natural rubber market prices on June 17

Index

On June 17, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in Qingdao market was 1710 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market

Spot market

Supply:

Foreign: The continuous rain in the Thai production area has caused continuous obstruction of rubber tapping, and some factories have increased the price to compete for raw material production, and the price of raw materials has risen; the Vietnamese production area has entered the seasonal increment stage, but the rainy weather has frequently disturbed the rubber tapping work, and the rhythm of new rubber in the early stage of production increase has been limited, and the raw material purchase price has remained high.

Domestic: There has been a lot of rainfall in the Yunnan production area, the rubber tapping work has not been carried out smoothly, the supply of rubber raw materials is tight, and the center of gravity of the raw material purchase price of the processing plant has moved up; the irregular precipitation weather disturbance in the Hainan production area has caused the rubber tapping work to be unsmooth, the output of fresh rubber on the island has continued to be poor, the circulation of raw materials in the market has been tight, and the purchase price of raw materials has risen slightly.

Demand: It is understood that the production of all-steel tire enterprises that were overhauled in the early stage is gradually recovering, and it is expected to gradually increase to the normal level in the near future. The production of most other enterprises is running smoothly. On the whole, the overall order performance of enterprises is insufficient, and the release of production capacity is limited. Some enterprises continue to operate at a relatively low level to control the overall growth of finished product inventory.

List of futures and spot prices

Forecast for the future market

The closing price of the main rubber contract today adjusted narrowly. From the supply side, short-term rainfall disturbances in domestic and foreign production areas are still frequent, which is not conducive to rubber tapping. To a certain extent, it supports the high price of raw materials, but the increase in rainfall does not reduce the expectation of increasing the supply of raw materials in the later period, and the cost support lacks sustainability.

The external macro sentiment boosted the rebound of rubber prices, but there was no obvious improvement in downstream demand, which suppressed the rise of rubber prices to a certain extent. It is expected that the fundamentals and macro news will be intertwined in the short term, and the rubber price may maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

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