Carbon Black Daily: How Much Further Can the Firm Trend Go?
Carbon Black Index
According to Toodudu's data calculations, the carbon black price index stood at 7,459 on August 14, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Carbon Black Price Index Trend (chart reproduced from the original article)
Carbon Black Market Prices
Market Impact Analysis
1. Upstream raw materials: Coal tar prices stood at RMB 405/ton in Shandong, RMB 4,100/ton in Shanxi, and RMB 4,080/ton in Hebei. The domestic high-temperature coal tar market continued its downtrend, with downstream plants pressing hard for lower prices and declines running relatively deep.
2. Carbon black supply: The operating rate of sampled carbon black producers rose slightly. A plant in Shanxi resumed operations after completing maintenance, while a major plant in Shandong suspended production due to unforeseen circumstances; producers in other regions ran at low loads. Overall, operating rates in the region edged up, but the increase was limited.
3. Downstream demand: It is understood that the industry as a whole remains focused on output control, with flexible adjustments in some segments. Most enterprises are adjusting production schedules based on their own inventory positions; with temperatures gradually easing, a few plants have moderately raised output, but the incremental volume is limited and has not yet changed the prevailing weak supply-demand pattern.
Outlook
As of now, the carbon black market is facing a "double whammy" of costs and demand. On one hand, coal tar raw material prices have fallen sharply, pulling the cost anchor lower and increasing pressure on new orders to follow suit. On the other hand, persistently weak downstream demand and limited acceptance of high carbon black prices have further eroded the market's downside resilience. Although negotiations on new orders remain deadlocked and actual price cuts have yet to materialize, the downtrend for new carbon black orders is now largely confirmed under the weight of these dual negatives.
