Carbon Black Weekly: Carbon Black's "Firmness" Is Somewhat Reluctant(Oct 15)

Carbon Black Weekly: Carbon Black's "Firmness" Is Somewhat Reluctant

1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis

This week, the downward trend in domestic carbon black prices temporarily halted, with the market operating steadily. As of Thursday this week: Shandong region at 9,500 yuan/ton; Shanxi region at 9,300 yuan/ton; Hebei region at 9,850 yuan/ton; Guangzhou region at 9,600 yuan/ton; Zhejiang region at 9,500 yuan/ton. The carbon black market ended its declining trend this week, with new orders maintaining firm prices. From the raw material side, coal tar auction prices in some regions began to rise this week, increasing cost-side pressure. However, from the demand side, tire enterprises' operating rates have not fully recovered, and procurement remains cautious. Carbon black new order price increases face resistance, resulting in a temporarily firm but reluctant adjustment pattern.

This week, the high-temperature coal tar market shifted from weak to strong, entering an upward adjustment channel. After the National Day holiday, the previous downward trend gradually eased, and market stabilization signals emerged. On the demand side, downstream factories began restocking, and procurement demand warmed up. Deep-processing product prices rose across the board, and profit recovery further boosted raw material procurement enthusiasm. On the supply side, rigid demand in some regions remained strong, the coal tar supply-demand gap persisted, and the tight supply pattern remained unchanged. As multiple favorable factors continued to be released, the short-term upward trend is expected to continue.

This week, the anthracene oil market showed obvious regional differentiation, with the core contradiction being the coexistence of divergent cost support and weak demand. On the cost side, high-temperature coal tar prices showed divergent trends across regions, though the upward adjustment trend was relatively evident, directly affecting anthracene oil manufacturers' shipment attitudes and price-hike willingness. On the demand side, overall carbon black operating rates remained low, reducing anthracene oil demand. Downstream procurement rhythms in various regions were also influenced by local coal tar trends, with divergent procurement sentiments.

Looking ahead to next week, raw material coal tar market new orders show clear upward momentum, with significant cost-side pressure. Some manufacturers have temporarily suspended quotations and are observing. However, from the demand side, tire enterprises' operating rates are gradually recovering, but procurement remains cautious. Carbon black new order price increases also face pressure, with a temporarily firm but consolidating pattern expected.

4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis

Taking the Shandong region as an example, with raw material coal tar prices temporarily stable and carbon black new orders maintaining stability, the theoretical profit of the carbon black market temporarily maintained a stable trend. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit of the carbon black industry is 97.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period.

5. This Week's Market Operating Rate Statistics

The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market was 57%.

China's semi-steel tire operating rate was 58%. China's all-steel tire operating rate was 53%. Tire enterprises' maintenance equipment gradually resumed production, and industry output rose slightly. However, some factories still implemented production and sales restrictions, and finished product inventories are expected to accumulate compared with the previous period. Recently, major raw material prices declined, but tire enterprises' comprehensive cost pressure remained prominent, and factories' price-holding intentions were strong. Channel agents remained cautious, and price increase implementation faced significant resistance.

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