Carbon Black Market Weekly-20260108
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices generally showed a clear upward trend. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 6250 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6000 yuan/ton; Hebei 6300 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6250 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6250 yuan/ton.
Following a significant increase in raw material coal tar tenders, new order prices in the region's carbon black market were driven up. However, new order pricing in the tire market was at a relatively low level before the price increase, leading to more small-order transactions. While transaction pressure remained during the cycle, significant market losses resulted in price maintenance negotiations for new carbon black orders, maintaining a relatively strong trend in the later period.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of January 8th, the carbon black price index was 6205, an increase of 376.5 from the previous cycle.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
The downward trend in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market came to an abrupt halt this week. Since the week before New Year's Day, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market has entered an upward channel, with an increase of 300-400 yuan/ton by this week. Due to the high operating rates of downstream factories, the demand for coal tar is strong. In addition, the operating rate of coking plants has been declining since December, resulting in a slight decrease in the supply of coal tar. The supply and demand situation in the market is showing a temporary tightness, driving up the price of coal tar. Moreover, most downstream products, especially coal pitch, have followed suit relatively smoothly. Therefore, there are no obvious negative factors in the market at present, and the coal tar market is expected to remain strong in the short term.
2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis
This period saw a significant increase in new orders for the raw material, high-temperature coal tar. The substantial rise in costs provided some support to the anthracene oil market but also put pressure on the profits of the coal tar deep-processing industry. Manufacturers generally maintained their quotations with substantial increases, while the downstream carbon black market had limited room for further price increases and showed a negative attitude towards accepting the significantly higher raw material prices. The anthracene oil hydrogenation market continued to buy on dips, while existing holders maintained firm offers, limiting downstream price pressure. Overall, transactions showed a substantial upward trend.
3. Carbon Black Market Outlook
Looking ahead to the next period, new orders for the raw material coal tar market are likely to rise rather than fall. Supported by costs, the carbon black market is expected to maintain firm prices. Moreover, the short-term loss situation in the carbon black market is unlikely to change, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices. The market is expected to maintain a relatively strong consolidation in new orders.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
The rise in carbon black market quotations, coupled with a significant increase in the price of raw material coal tar, has led to substantial losses in the carbon black market. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -748 yuan/ton, a significant decrease compared to last week.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of carbon black enterprises remained relatively stable. Large factories in Shandong and Shanxi provinces operated at higher rates due to heating and gas supply tasks, while some smaller factories reduced their operating rates to offset losses. Southern regions maintained low operating rates for an extended period. Overall, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises remained relatively stable.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 64%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 56%.
During the week, some enterprises remained shut down for maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, gradually resuming operations around the 4th. Production schedules were not operating normally for most of the week, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Shipments were slow during the cycle, and inventory reduction was slower than expected.
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