Carbon Black Market Weekly Analysis
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
Domestic carbon black prices declined slightly at the beginning of the week, but subsequently stabilized. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 5600 yuan/ton; Shanxi 5600 yuan/ton; Hebei 5800 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 5950 yuan/ton; Zhejiang 5800 yuan/ton. The domestic carbon black market was characterized by a wait-and-see attitude among participants.
At the end of the week, coal tar prices were released, with both increases and decreases in new orders, but the magnitude was limited, resulting in insufficient market impact. The market remained cautious, with downstream inquiries and offers for new orders being low. New order negotiations continued to break through low levels, leading to a stalemate in new order negotiations. The carbon black market continued to operate at a loss, consolidating at low levels.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, the carbon black price index was 5719 as of November 6th, a decrease of 109.75 from the previous period.
2. Carbon Black Market Outlook
Looking ahead to the next cycle, auction prices for raw material coal tar are being released, and coal tar prices have shown signs of stabilizing. However, weak end-user demand offers limited support to the raw material market, resulting in relatively limited cost support for carbon black. Furthermore, the tire market is bearish on its future prospects, leading to low willingness to purchase, limiting the potential for a market rebound and likely maintaining a weak consolidation phase.
3. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
While raw material coal tar bidding prices have declined slightly, carbon black market prices have fallen significantly. Theoretically, this widens the losses in the carbon black market. There are expectations of price support in new carbon black order negotiations, but pushing prices up in actual transactions is difficult. With raw material coal tar prices having largely stabilized and a potential upward trend, the losses in the carbon black market will further increase. Currently, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 168 yuan/ton compared to last week.
4. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
4.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
Carbon black enterprises saw a decline in operating rates. Enterprises in northern regions such as Shandong and Hebei, which had completed maintenance before the heating season, gradually resumed operations. Currently, some small and medium-sized enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi are still undergoing maintenance.
4.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 73%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 65%.
Last week, production at enterprises undergoing maintenance returned to normal levels, leading to a slight increase in the overall operating rate. Most other enterprises maintained stable operation. During the period, sales were mainly based on normal patterns, with overall inventory fluctuating slightly.
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