Carbon Black Market Weekly - No. 20260205
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices remained relatively stable, with slight downward trends in some regions. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 6800 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6350 yuan/ton; Hebei 6900 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6850 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6800 yuan/ton.
New orders in the carbon black market remained stagnant this week. Some large manufacturers lowered their quoted prices. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream tire manufacturers' purchasing activity decreased, with only small-scale restocking orders for immediate needs.
Demand from other product manufacturers was generally weak, resulting in a sluggish market. Both high and low prices were observed, but transaction volumes were low. Carbon black plant operating rates remained relatively stable at low levels. While the raw material coal tar market showed some decline before the holiday, its impact on the carbon black market weakened.
Continued decline in market demand led to a situation where the carbon black market was in a state of high prices but low sales volume. The market is expected to remain stable and observe for the foreseeable future.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of February 5th, the carbon black price index was 6714.25, a decrease of 95.25 from the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
The domestic high-temperature coal tar market continued its downward trend this period. With the release of auction prices in Shanxi, the market continued to decline. Most coking plants still had a shipment volume of about 7-10 days. Recently, positive market factors have gradually disappeared, and the performance of downstream products remains generally weak.
Deep-processing enterprises temporarily have a small profit margin, while carbon black enterprises are still operating at a loss. Furthermore, downstream stockpiling is nearing its end, while coking plant shipments have increased.
Coupled with the impact of the complete shutdown of deep-processing plants in Inner Mongolia, coal tar sales in that region are sluggish. Therefore, negative factors in the coal tar market have increased. Next week, transportation capacity in the market will gradually decrease, coking plants' willingness to ship will increase, and market prices will continue to decline.
2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis
This period saw a continued decline in the spot price of anthracene oil in Shandong, with end-users exhibiting a passive approach to market entry. Looking at this period, the price of new orders for high-temperature coal tar, a raw material, continued to decline, negatively impacting the anthracene oil market due to cost factors.
On the supply side, the operating rate of deep-processing coal tar decreased, leading to a slight decrease in anthracene oil supply. With the holiday approaching, many holders maintained a strategy of actively selling off inventory at low levels.
Downstream carbon black is currently in a period of price correction, continuing to purchase raw materials at low prices and exhibiting a passive approach to market entry. Demand in the anthracene oil hydrogenation market remained low. Overall, the anthracene oil market experienced significant negative factors this period, with a continued weakening trend.
3. Carbon Black Market Forecast
Looking at the next period, the decline in the raw material coal tar market is expected to continue before the holiday, negatively impacting the market due to cost factors. Downstream tire manufacturers are gradually entering holiday season, leading to a decrease in restocking.
Next week, market transaction volume is expected to continue to decline, and the market is anticipated to gradually enter a state of high prices but low volume, with little price fluctuation.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, the price of raw material coal tar continued to decline, weakening the cost-driven force, and further declines were expected. Demand was weak, and market transactions were limited. The carbon black market gradually entered a state of high prices but low volume, with limited price fluctuations. Theoretically, the loss margin for carbon black narrowed. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -83 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan/ton compared to last week.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating load of sample carbon black enterprises adjusted slightly. Some large plants resumed normal operations after previous line reductions and maintenance. Some enterprises were affected by declining demand, resulting in low operating rates. Overall, the operating load of the carbon black market did not fluctuate significantly, remaining at a low level.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 72%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 61%.
The operating rate declined to varying degrees during the week, with some sample companies suspending operations for the holiday at the end of January, which dragged down the overall operating rate. Pre-holiday stockpiling continued during the period, but shipment performance varied.
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