Natural Rubber Market Weekly - No. 20260205
1. Rubber Spot Market Analysis
This week, rubber futures maintained a slightly bullish and volatile pattern. Global supply entered a seasonal reduction phase, and overseas raw material prices were more likely to rise than fall, providing continued support for natural rubber costs. Downstream purchasing intentions were relatively weak, with most purchases focused on replenishing only essential needs. With the Spring Festival approaching, traders' risk aversion increased, further dampening spot buying sentiment. The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term.
This week, spot market quotations for natural rubber latex saw a slight increase. Rising prices for USD-denominated shipments from Southeast Asia strengthened cost support. Limited spot supply in sales areas led traders to tentatively follow suit with price increases. Downstream product manufacturers have largely completed their pre-holiday stockpiling and are gradually entering shutdown or holiday periods, resulting in limited buying interest.
Market Forecast:
1. Limited disruption from rainfall; limited release of raw materials during the production reduction period;
2. Expected decline in operating rates for tire sample companies next cycle;
3. Continued inventory accumulation in Qingdao, China;
4. Exchange rates, Fed rate cuts, etc.
2. Natural Rubber Supply Analysis
2.1 Thailand Production Area
Raw material procurement prices in Thailand continued to rise. Tapping has ceased in northern Thailand; large-scale leaf drop has occurred in northeastern Thailand, leading to a continuous decline in daily rubber production at the end of the tapping season, with cup lump prices remaining relatively strong; leaf drop in rubber trees in southern Thailand has prompted latex factories to raise their latex purchase prices, driving up latex purchase prices.
Raw material inventories at Thai factories are generally at 2-3 months' worth, lower than the same period last year, and daily rubber collection is currently declining significantly at the end of the tapping season. Orders for tire factories in China and Thailand are average, while overseas demand is slightly better, with factory shipments scheduled for August/September.
2.2 Vietnam Production Area
The weather in Vietnam's production areas is sunny and favorable. Tapping in the southern regions is expected to cease near the Lunar New Year, resulting in a continued decline in overall rubber production. Tapping is nearing its end, and local processing plants are actively stockpiling. Raw material prices continued their high-level fluctuation trend throughout the week.
2.3 Yunnan Production Area
Raw material prices in Yunnan's production areas remained stable this week, as the region entered its off-season.
2.4 Hainan Production Area
Raw material prices in the Hainan production area are currently unavailable, and the tapping season has officially begun.
3. Analysis of Natural Rubber Cost and Profit Situation
3.1 Overseas Production Area: Thailand
The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 rubber fluctuated narrowly. During the period, the price of raw material cup lump rose slightly, the Thai baht depreciated, and factory production costs decreased slightly. With increased macroeconomic uncertainty, factory quotations were adjusted narrowly, and the theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber did not fluctuate significantly compared to the previous week.
3.2 Domestic Production Area: Hainan
Natural rubber in Hainan has officially entered the off-season; local processing plants have gradually ceased operations.
4. Analysis of Natural Rubber Demand
4.1 Downstream of Dry Rubber
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 72%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 61%.
The operating rate declined to varying degrees during the week. Some sample enterprises entered a holiday shutdown at the end of January, which dragged down the overall operating rate. Pre-holiday stockpiling continued during the period, and shipment performance varied.
4.2 Downstream of Concentrated Rubber Latex
It is reported that the average operating rate of glove factories in North China has declined to around 20-40%. With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, factories are gradually shutting down. Finished product orders are weak, leading to inventory pressure. Furthermore, the low prices of substitutes are significantly impacting the market. As raw material and cost prices rise, factories are facing increased production cost pressures and are unwilling to stockpile too much raw material before the holiday. It is understood that factories will basically cease production and close for the holiday around the Lunar New Year.
Downstream product manufacturers of natural rubber latex are gradually shutting down or reducing production, resulting in weak demand. It is reported that the operating rate of foam factories in Wenzhou has declined to around 10%, with the number of factories shutting down further this week, essentially bringing production activities to a standstill. End-user demand remains weak, lacking a substantial recovery, resulting in finished product inventory remaining at a low level, basically stored according to order demand. Affected by cost pressures and the market environment, it is difficult to raise prices for finished products at the end of the year, putting pressure on production profits and further weakening the overall willingness to purchase raw materials.
5. Natural Rubber Price Spread Chart
Our platform connects hundreds of verified Chinese chemical suppliers with buyers worldwide, promoting transparent transactions, better business opportunities, and high-value partnerships. Whether you are looking for bulk commodities, specialty chemicals, or customized procurement services, TDD-Global is trustworthy to be your fist choice.
