Carbon Black Market Weekly-No. 20260115
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices generally showed a clear upward trend. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 6500 yuan/ton; Shanxi 600 yuan/ton; Hebei 6450 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6450 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6500 yuan/ton. The raw material market showed a certain upward trend, leading to expectations of price increases for new orders in the region.
Furthermore, subsequent offers also showed a willingness to rise. Downstream markets were only accepting immediate needs, resulting in limited actual transaction volume. Supported by cost prices, new orders in the market maintained a stable price trend.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of January 15th, the carbon black price index was 6419.25, an increase of 214.25 compared to the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
This period, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market maintained a narrow upward trend. Currently, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market is dominated by favorable factors. On the supply side, the operating enthusiasm of coking plants is unlikely to increase in the short term. On the demand side, due to the generally low raw material inventories of downstream factories and the upcoming Spring Festival holiday stockpiling, there is still strong rigid demand for coal tar. Furthermore, the operating rates of deep processing and carbon black have both increased. Therefore, the supply and demand of coal tar remains relatively tight, and prices are expected to continue to rise until the end of the month.
2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis
Prices for raw materials in major producing areas are being released this period. Prices in Linhuan, Anhui, have been implemented and continue to rise. Raw material prices are likely to remain high and firm in the short term, providing strong support for the anthracene oil market. From a supply perspective, the operating rate of coal tar deep processing is expected to continue to increase, leading to increased anthracene oil shipments.
Anthracene oil manufacturers still have a positive attitude towards raising prices. This week, the impact of news has weakened, and industry players are returning to rationality. Downstream demand is weak. After the increase in new carbon black orders, end-user acceptance is limited. The operating rate of anthracene oil hydrogenation is weak, and there is no significant improvement in the short term.
3. Carbon Black Market Forecast
Looking at the next cycle, the price of raw material coal tar is expected to rise. Cost factors are driving offers, and new order offers are expected to follow suit. Actual transaction activity is generally weak. New order negotiations in the tire market are limited, with previous contracts being executed. New order prices are expected to remain firm.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Carbon black market prices rose, and raw material coal tar market prices also increased, leading to a recovery in profits during the week. However, the overall loss-making situation in the carbon black market remains unchanged. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -429.5 yuan/ton, a significant decrease compared to last week.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 73%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 63%.
During this period, as the production schedules of maintenance-repaired plants gradually stabilized, output increased significantly compared to last week. Increased export orders for some semi-steel tire companies boosted their operating rates. However, finished product inventories at some all-steel tire companies rose significantly. To control inventory growth, some production was controlled, limiting the increase in all-steel tire operating rates.
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