Carbon Black Weekly Report (May 21)
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices experienced a narrow decline. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 6900 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6650 yuan/ton; Hebei 7100 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 7100 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6900 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, new tenders for raw material coal tar were not yet released, leading to a strong wait-and-see attitude among market participants.
The market focused on fulfilling existing contracts, resulting in lackluster negotiations for new orders. Downstream procurement negotiations remained stalled, and carbon black prices mostly remained stable.
With a slight increase in new orders for raw material coal tar, cost-side quotations improved, but market activity remained moderate, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The room for price concessions narrowed, and negotiations focused on maintaining firm prices. The decline in new orders gradually stopped, and low-priced offers decreased, but the weak positive impact limited the fluctuation range of new orders.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of May 21st, the carbon black price index was 6914.75, a decrease of 75.75 from the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
This period saw mixed price movements in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market. Since last week, the decline in coal tar prices widened, downstream buying sentiment rebounded, and coal tar inventories in the market decreased rapidly. Meanwhile, downstream operating rates remained high, tightening the market supply and demand. In addition, deep-processing enterprises still have some profit margins. Therefore, with these positive factors, the coal tar market has recently shown a certain upward trend.
2.2 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Anthracene Oil
This period saw a slight decline in the domestic anthracene oil market price. At the beginning of the week, no new orders for high-temperature coal tar were tendered, providing insufficient guidance for the anthracene oil market. Anthracene oil holders did not actively offer prices. Downstream anthracene oil hydrogenation demand was insufficient, with carbon black buyers mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach. The anthracene oil market remained stable for the time being.
As the week draws to a close, new order prices for the raw material high-temperature coal tar market are gradually being released, leading to a steady rebound in the overall trend. This has had a positive impact on anthracene oil manufacturers' quotations. Currently, downstream carbon black market participants are not actively inquiring, mostly waiting for upstream quotations before negotiating. The anthracene oil market is expected to experience limited fluctuations.
3. Carbon Black Market Outlook
Looking ahead to the next period, new order prices for the raw material coal tar market are expected to rise slightly, providing some support to the market. However, downstream buyers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in limited new order transactions. Market quotations are mostly stable, and new order changes are expected to be minimal, with narrow-range fluctuations.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, the carbon black market price is weak, while the raw material coal tar market price is temporarily stable, resulting in a profitable carbon black market. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -60.5 yuan/ton, compared to -193 yuan/ton in the previous period.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 75%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 68%.
During this period, most tire companies maintained stable production, but due to the combined effects of high raw material prices and slowing market shipments, some companies experienced production stoppages or reductions, resulting in a generally weak industry operating rate. Currently, the overall industry inventory level is relatively reasonable. Under the dual pressure of cost pressure and sluggish sales, some companies attempted to raise product prices to boost sales demand, but the actual market impact was limited.
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