Caustic soda: The liquid caustic soda market is stable but weak, the price of flake caustic soda is stable but rising, and the 05 contract has increased significantly(December 18, 2024)

Analysis of caustic soda futures: On December 18, the opening price of SH2505 contract was 2643, the highest price was 2648, the lowest price was 2580, the position was 51666, the settlement price was 2622, the settlement price yesterday was 2651, the decline was 29, the closing price was 2585, the daily trading volume was 73935 lots, the deposited funds were 641 million, and the capital inflow was 72.76 million.

Caustic soda market price:

Caustic soda spot analysis: Today, the caustic soda market was stable with small fluctuations, the liquid caustic soda market was stable but weak, and there was a decline in some areas, the flake caustic soda market was stable with a rise, and the market transaction was tepid. From the perspective of regional market price adjustments, the price of 32% ion membrane caustic soda fell by 10-100 yuan/ton in some areas, the price of 48% ion membrane caustic soda fell by 100 yuan/ton in some areas, the market price of 99% flake caustic soda was stable with a rise, and the price range of other concentrations of caustic soda did not show significant changes. Today, the market price of liquid caustic soda is stable but weak, with declines in some regions, and no obvious fluctuations in most regions; under the influence of the continuous downward adjustment of the main downstream alumina purchasing price, the weak trading atmosphere in the market is difficult to change. In addition, under the impact of the price drop in the main production area at the beginning of the week, the market players are bearish on the future market. Based on their own destocking pressure, some companies have adjusted their quotations downward; most other regions are temporarily stable, and downstream players are cautiously waiting to enter the market. Today, the flake caustic soda market is stable with a slight increase, and the high-end price in the East China market has moved up; this week, most new orders have remained relatively stable at the factory price, and some manufacturers have good pre-sales, mainly delivering pre-sale orders in the early stage; logistics and transportation in some areas have maintained the previous level, and the tradable supply is tight, which has certain support for market prices.

Analysis of caustic soda index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic caustic soda index was 3051.50 on December 18, down 2.07, a range of 0.068%, and the domestic caustic soda index fell.

Forecast of caustic soda market:
Spot: At present, the liquid caustic soda market is stable with a slight decline, with fluctuations in some regions, and other regions are temporarily stable; the supply in the market is relatively sufficient, but the demand side has not seen a significant improvement, and some manufacturers are willing to reduce inventory, and the market transaction is tepid; with the purchase price of liquid caustic soda by the main alumina plant in Shandong Province to be reduced by 20 yuan/ton tomorrow, it is difficult to find favorable factors to support the market in the short term, and downstream players are bearish on the future market. It is expected that the liquid caustic soda market will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and there is still a downward expectation in some areas. The flake caustic soda market is stable with a slight increase. This week, the ex-factory prices of most new orders remain at a relatively stable level. The pre-sale situation of some manufacturers is still good, and the delivery of pre-sale orders is the main focus; there is no obvious fluctuation on both the supply and demand sides, but the logistics and transportation in some areas remain at the previous level, and the tradable supply is tight, which has a certain support for the market price. It is expected that the market price of flake caustic soda will be mainly stable in the short term, with limited fluctuations, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the market transaction situation.