PVC: Futures are running at a low level, the transfer of positions and months is coming to an end, and the spot market is offering flexibly(December 18, 2024)
PVC futures analysis: On December 18, the opening price of the V2501 contract was 5018, the highest price was 5062, the lowest price was 5013, the position was 490021, the settlement price was 5036, yesterday's settlement was 5051, down 15, the daily trading volume was 583792 lots, the deposited funds were 1.725 billion, and the capital outflow was 245 million.
List of comprehensive prices in each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market were mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and the quotations in various regions were relatively flexible. From the comparison of valuations: Among them, the North China region fell by 20-30 yuan/ton, the East China region was stable, the South China region rose by 30-50 yuan/ton, the Northeast region was stable, the Central China region fell by 30 yuan/ton, and the Southwest region was stable. Most upstream PVC manufacturers maintained stable quotations, and some companies slightly reduced their prices by 50 yuan/ton to stimulate ex-factory transactions. The futures market price trend continued to be mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and the 05 contract position greatly exceeded the 01 contract position, and the transfer of positions to the next month was imminent. Compared with yesterday, the spot market quotations in some regions were slightly increased, and some fell, but the market transactions remained mainly based on rigid demand, and the basis was slightly adjusted. Among them, the basis quotations in East China were 05 contracts-(300-440), 05 contracts in South China-(250-300), 05 contracts in the North-(550-600), and some sources in the Southwest were ex-factory 05 contracts-(800). Overall, the price advantage of the basis quotations today was not obvious, and most of the actual orders were negotiated. The enthusiasm of downstream spot purchases was not high.
From the perspective of futures: The night market price of PVC2501 contract opened low and went high, and then adjusted in a narrow range, and rose again in the late trading. The price of the late trading fell from the beginning of the morning, and recovered the early trading losses in the afternoon, but it weakened slightly in the late trading. Although there were fluctuations throughout the day, the fluctuation range was small. The 2501 contract fluctuated in the range of 5013-5062 throughout the day, with a spread of 49.01 contract reduced its position by 69,393 lots, and currently held 490,021 lots. The 2505 contract closed at 5,335, with a position of 630,397 lots.
PVC market outlook:
Futures: The PVC2505 contract held 630,397 lots, far exceeding the 2501 contract, and the transfer of positions is basically coming to an end. The futures prices of the two contracts have similar trends, both of which are mainly in a narrow range at a low level, and the fluctuation range of futures prices is small. However, the monthly difference between the 2505-2501 contracts of the continuous premium structure is still maintained above 300 points. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) of the 2501 contract have narrowed significantly. The current futures price is basically consolidating around the middle track. The KD line and MACD line of the 2501 contract at the daily level show a golden cross trend, but the market conditions presented by the exit are not stable. In the short term, the futures price may still maintain a low and narrow adjustment trend, and the 2501 contract will observe the performance in the range of 4970-5100.
Spot: At present, the spot market has feedback from manufacturers and intermediaries that the delivery rhythm continues to maintain the previous state. At the current time node, some downstream demand parties purchase forward pre-sale sources, and the actual orders in the spot market are basically negotiated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. There is still no new idea at the current supply and demand level. The supply is temporarily stable at a high level. The recent calcium carbide price has increased slightly. There is pressure on the production of single PVC products, and downstream demand continues to maintain rigid demand. Overall, with the gradual completion of the transfer of warehouses and months, after 2505 became the main contract, both long and short have the need to enter the market, so the futures market performance is still unstable, and the corresponding spot market also continues to fluctuate and adjust.
Domestic PVC Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 4998.59 on December 18, down 5.62, a range of 0.112%. The ethylene-based PVC spot index was 5272.52, down 5.93, or 0.112%. The calcium carbide-based index fell, and the ethylene-based index price difference was 273.93.
