China Carbon Black Market Q1 2026
Chapter 1 Analysis of China's Carbon Black Market
1.1 Overview of China's Carbon Black Market
The carbon black market in the first quarter exhibited an inverted "V" trend. The initial surge was significant, with the highest price approaching the peak of 2025. However, the subsequent decline was similar to that of the same period in 2025. Taking carbon black N330 as an example, the highest price in the first quarter was 8004 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 5881 yuan/ton, showing a significant overall upward trend.
Carbon black prices began to rise in January. During this period, the price of raw materials increased significantly, leading to a substantial increase in new orders for carbon black. However, the downstream tire market resisted high prices, and previous low-priced orders were still being fulfilled. The actual price increase in the market was limited, resulting in losses for the carbon black market. Cost pressures kept market prices high, and the operating rate of production facilities declined slightly during the month, reducing supply pressure in the market.
In February, carbon black prices remained relatively stable, with limited overall price fluctuations. New orders were gradually negotiated. The continuous rise in raw material market prices during the period drove up carbon black market prices. However, after the price surge before the Spring Festival holiday, actual carbon black transactions were limited.
Downstream tire manufacturers had largely completed new orders, and pre-holiday replenishment orders decreased. Upon returning from the holiday, raw material coal tar prices rose, and carbon black market prices followed suit. Furthermore, downstream enterprises that had undergone maintenance during the holiday gradually resumed production and entered the market to inquire and purchase, providing support for a willingness to raise carbon black market quotations.
In March, carbon black market prices exhibited a trend of rising first and then falling. During the month, raw material market prices rose sharply, driving carbon black product quotations to their highest level for the year. However, after the price increase, downstream resistance emerged, and high-level transactions were limited. As raw material prices fell from their highs, bearish sentiment emerged in the market, and new orders turned downward. Meanwhile, downstream tire manufacturers maintained their pressure on the market during new order negotiations, resulting in a significant decline in market transaction prices.
1.2 Average Monthly Prices of Carbon Black in Different Regions
1.3 Profit Analysis of China's Carbon Black Industry
The overall profit and loss margin of the carbon black industry continued to narrow in the first quarter, reaching profitability by the end of the quarter. Taking N330 carbon black enterprises in Shandong Province as an example.
In January, the loss-making area of the carbon black market narrowed. Both carbon black market prices and raw material coal tar prices rose simultaneously, leading to a reduction in losses, although the market remained unprofitable.
In February, carbon black market prices rose significantly. Although raw material coal tar prices continued to rise, the increase was only slight compared to the January average, resulting in a narrowing of losses in the carbon black market.
In March, the carbon black market turned profitable. The significant price increase during the cycle boosted profit margins.
1.4 Analysis of China's Carbon Black Production
According to TuDuoduo statistics, China's carbon black production in the first quarter was 1.4865 million tons, a decrease of 3.95% compared to the same period last year.
1.5 Analysis of China's Carbon Black Monthly Operating Rate
According to TuDuoduo statistics, the operating rate of sample carbon black enterprises in the first quarter showed a "V"-shaped trend, with overall operating rates weaker than the same period last year. January, just before the Spring Festival holiday, saw a downward trend in industry operating rates due to weakening demand expectations and continued industry losses.
Entering February, the Spring Festival holiday lasted the entire month, with tire factories and related product manufacturers suspending production for the holidays, further reducing the operating rate of the carbon black industry. In particular, the shutdowns and production reductions of small and medium-sized carbon black plants were even greater than during the Spring Festival holiday last year.
After the Spring Festival, tire factories' inventory levels were higher than after the Spring Festival last year, and the overall new order intake for carbon black was lower than expected. Major market transactions were concentrated in early March. The outbreak of geopolitical conflicts led to an unexpected increase in carbon black costs. During this period, factories that had undergone maintenance during the holiday gradually resumed operations, with large factories operating normally and only some small factories experiencing planned shutdowns. The operating rate of carbon black manufacturers increased in March.
Chapter 2 Analysis of China's Carbon Black Import and Export in 2024
2.1 Analysis of China's Carbon Black Imports
According to customs data: In February 2026, my country's carbon black imports totaled 24,300 tons, up 17.14% month-on-month and down 33.28% year-on-year. The cumulative imports for January-February were 45,000 tons, down 33.28% compared to the same period last year. The impact of the Spring Festival on logistics and transportation in February led to delays in customs clearance and slower delivery of some arriving goods, limiting the increase in imports.
However, increased demand after domestic enterprises resumed work in the latter half of the month led to the supplementation of imports with lower-priced imports, resulting in a slight increase in imports during the month.
2.2 Analysis of China's Carbon Black Exports
According to customs data: In February 2026, my country's carbon black exports totaled 64,700 tons, down 36.61% month-on-month and down 34.70% year-on-year. The cumulative exports for January-February were 166,700 tons, down 34.70% compared to the same period last year. February saw a decline in industry operating rates and insufficient capacity release due to the Spring Festival holiday, resulting in a decrease in export volume. This, coupled with weak downstream demand and reduced overseas orders, led to a significant drop in exports.
2.3 Analysis of Apparent Carbon Black Consumption in China
According to data from TuDuoDuo, China's apparent carbon black consumption in January and February was 868,000 tons.
2.4 Analysis of High-Temperature Coal Tar Imports in China
According to customs data, China's total imports of high-temperature coal tar decreased in January and February. Cumulative imports for January and February were approximately 50,700 tons, a decrease of 8.33% compared to the same period last year, representing a decrease of 4,600 tons.
Chapter 3 Forecast for the Future of the Chinese Carbon Black Market
The carbon black market price is expected to show a trend of first falling and then rising. In April, the carbon black market price will be dragged down by the decline in the raw material market, showing a downward adjustment trend.
In May, the demand for coal tar is relatively strong, and with the support of downstream benefits, its price is expected to rise, thus providing support for new carbon black order negotiations, and the carbon black market price is expected to follow suit. In June, as the tire market gradually enters the off-season, new orders for carbon black are significantly pressured by downstream demand, and market prices are expected to gradually decline.
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