China PP: Inventory & Trend Sep 15th
Domestic petrochemical inventories: Polyolefin inventories of both crude and crude oil products reached 700,000 tons, up 45,000 tons from last week.
Futures Analysis: The PP2601 contract price fluctuated narrowly in the night session on September 15th, with a slight downward trend. The price fluctuated upward in the morning session and then consolidated at a relatively high level in the afternoon session.
Positions for the PP2601 contract decreased by 27,201 lots. The opening price was 6,933, the high was 6,976, the low was 6,914, and the spread was 62. Open interest was 616,154 lots. The settlement price was 6,946. Yesterday's settlement price was 6,910, up 36. Daily trading volume was 297,850 lots. Deposited funds were 3.004 billion yuan, and outflows were 109 million yuan.
Mainstream market quotes for wire drawing:
Domestic spot market analysis: Today, the domestic PP market showed a mixed trend of gains and losses. Market prices remained stable only in the southwest region. Prices in East China saw slight increases, while those in North China, South China, and Northwest China declined, fluctuating between 20 and 50 yuan per ton. Regarding prices, the mainstream domestic polypropylene price ranged from 6,720 to 7,090 yuan per ton. The overall PP market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with diverging price trends.
On the supply side, some manufacturers are maintaining stable ex-factory prices, awaiting changes in market sentiment and demand, while others are lowering their prices by 20 to 250 yuan per ton in an attempt to stimulate downstream demand. Demand is also weak, with downstream companies' purchasing behavior strictly focused on rigid production needs and a lack of proactive inventory replenishment. End-market purchasing activity is generally low. Against this backdrop, the market is cautious.
To expedite inventory turnover and alleviate funding pressures, traders are often adopting discount strategies, but this has failed to effectively improve market transaction conditions, and the overall market sentiment remains subdued.
Market Forecast: The polypropylene market currently faces a complex landscape of mixed bullish and bearish factors. On the positive side, the continued implementation of US sanctions against oil-producing countries, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, provides fundamental support for the polypropylene market from the upstream crude oil sector, providing some cushion against downward price pressure. On the negative side, the supply side and the supply-demand structure are acting as a suppressive force. On the one hand, OPEC+'s insistence on increasing production has led to relatively ample upstream crude oil supplies, and the Jinneng Chemical PP unit is scheduled to resume production today, further expanding the scale of polyolefin spot supply. On the other hand, accumulated polyolefin inventories from the two oil companies increased by 45,000 tons over the weekend compared to last week, significantly increasing inventory pressure.
Furthermore, during the traditionally peak demand season of September, downstream demand growth is unlikely to match the pace of supply growth, exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch and becoming a key variable constraining market trends. Overall, the polypropylene market is expected to experience a volatile and weak trend in the short term.
Domestic PP Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic PP spot index was 6849.00 on September 15, down 14 points, or 0.20%.
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