PE Price Trend: Sep15 China
Domestic Petrochemical Inventories: Polyolefin inventories from both crude and crude oils reached 700,000 tons, up 45,000 tons from last week.
PE Spot Market Analysis: Today, domestic PE market prices showed a stable but adjusted trend. Linear grades remained stable in North, East, and South China. High-pressure grades remained stable only in South China, with a slight decrease in North China and an increase in East China. Low-pressure film grades declined only in North China, remaining flat compared to yesterday in East and South China.
Low-pressure wire drawing grades rose only in North China, remained stable in East China, and weakened in South China. The current PE market is characterized by a significant supply-demand dynamic, with diverging performance across various segments. On the supply side, manufacturers adopted varying pricing strategies, with some maintaining factory prices stable to gauge market conditions, others reducing prices by 20-150 yuan/ton to stimulate demand, and certain specific grades seeing price increases due to supply-demand discrepancies. Inquiries have improved slightly in some regions, but traders are generally still shipping in line with market trends, with no significant proactive price adjustments.
On the demand side, downstream factories are primarily purchasing on dips to replenish inventory, focusing on actual production needs and lacking sustained incentives to restock. A strong wait-and-see sentiment is also evident in the market, hindering substantial transaction volume. Overall, the PE market is currently in a supply-demand balancing act, with price adjustments exhibiting structural characteristics. Market trading activity, influenced by wait-and-see sentiment, has yet to see a significant boost.
PE Spot Price Forecast: In the futures market, the L2601 contract saw price fluctuations and consolidation in the evening session, with prices steadily rising in the morning session and fluctuating within a narrow range at a relatively high level in the afternoon session. The current PE market shows a clear divergence between supply and demand. Sinopec and Yulong Petrochemical's PE plants are expected to resume production today, releasing a combined 950,000 tons of production capacity, further replenishing spot supply. However, weak demand and insufficient follow-up from end-user demand are providing limited support to the market.
Within this context, current market prices are primarily experiencing narrow fluctuations. Meanwhile, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, the market is entering a transitional phase of pre-holiday stocking and wait-and-see trading. Overall, the polyethylene market is likely to continue its weak, narrow range of fluctuations in the short term. On the one hand, the resumption of production at Sinopec and Yulong Petrochemical will increase supply, and coupled with the lack of substantial improvement in pre-holiday end-user demand, the supply-demand imbalance may be slightly exacerbated.
On the other hand, before the two holidays, traders and downstream factories are primarily focused on clearing existing inventory and purchasing on demand, lacking the motivation to actively push prices or replenish inventory. As a result, market trading sentiment is unlikely to see a significant boost, and prices will fluctuate narrowly within the current range, with slight downward pressure.
Mainstream PE Market Quotes:
PE Futures Analysis: September 15th, L2601 Opening Price: 7199, High: 7237, Low: 7168, Open Interest: 554,975, Settlement Price: 7202, Yesterday's Settlement: 7174, Up 28%, Daily Trading Volume: 264,026 Contracts, Deposited Capital: 2.81 Billion Yuan, Outflow: 6.31 Million Yuan.
Domestic PE Index: According to Tuduoduo data, on September 15th, the domestic HDPE spot index was 7654, down 3%; the LDPE film spot index was 9491, up 2%; and the LLDPE spot index was 7296, down 0%.
Shenhua Auction Statistics: Today's auction volume was 410 tons, and today's trading volume was 360 tons.
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