Hot Topic Focus: Will Carbon Black Prices Continue to Rise?(Oct 23)

Hot Topic Focus: Will Carbon Black Prices Continue to Rise?

This week, domestic carbon black prices remained relatively stable. Shandong region: 9,500 yuan/ton; Shanxi region: 9,300 yuan/ton; Hebei region: 9,850 yuan/ton; Guangzhou region: 9,600 yuan/ton; Zhejiang region: 9,500 yuan/ton.

Raw Material Side: High-Temperature Coal Tar Still Has Upside Expectations

Supply Side:

Currently, raw coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized, providing a floor support for coke prices, and the room for further deep declines in coke prices has narrowed. Since most coke enterprises are currently operating at a loss, some regional coke enterprises have already begun slight production cuts, with operating loads adjusted downward. High-temperature coal tar output is still expected to decrease slightly, and the supply side may face marginal contraction, providing a certain favorable support for coal tar prices.

Demand Side:

As the deep processing maintenance season gradually comes to an end, previously idled units are restarting one after another, and the industry operating rate will gradually recover, increasing the consumption of coal tar accordingly. In addition, downstream deep processing enterprises still maintain a certain profit margin, with relatively high operating enthusiasm and stable production rhythms. The rigid demand for coal tar in the market remains sound. Demand-side support is relatively solid, providing a certain floor support for coal tar prices.

Sentiment Side:

The current market presents a pattern of being easy to rise but hard to fall, with the price center of gravity moving upward steadily. The overall downstream buying atmosphere is positive, with strong purchasing willingness. Inquiries and actual order follow-ups have both improved, forming positive feedback on prices and further strengthening the market's price-holding mentality.

Overall Summary:

Marginal supply contraction, sound rigid demand, and positive market sentiment — these three factors work together to form combined support. Supply contraction narrows the downside room for prices, sound rigid demand supports the transaction floor, and positive sentiment enhances the upward momentum. Under the resonance of multiple factors, the high-temperature coal tar market is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term, with the price center of gravity likely to move upward steadily.

Demand Side: Restocking Slows, Tire Operating Rates Fluctuate Within a Narrow Range

All-Steel Tires:

After several rounds of price hike policy stimulus, some agents and stores have nearly completed restocking, and have now entered the inventory digestion stage. The pace of new order follow-ups has slowed, and the short-term focus is primarily on digesting previously stocked inventory.

Semi-Steel Tires:

The "Double 11" online shopping festival pre-sale campaign has begun, and online promotions may continue to divert sales from offline stores. Offline distribution faces certain diversion pressure, and channel sentiment tends to be cautious. High costs and price hike expectations coexist, and tire enterprises' cost pressure has not yet eased, with some companies continuing toprepare a new round of price increases. However, from the channel side, previous restocking has been successively completed, the restocking pace has noticeably slowed, and shipment speed is mediocre. Market transactions have shifted toward inventory digestion as the main focus. Against this backdrop, tire operating rates may maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term, lacking significant volume-driven momentum.

Overall Summary: Cost Support, Carbon Black Easy to Rise but Hard to Fall

New orders in the raw material coal tar market still show upward momentum, with the price center of gravity continuing to move up. Cost-side support is strong, providing a powerful boost to downstream quotation sentiment. At the same time, the downstream has certain procurement demand, and rigid demand follow-up is acceptable, forming a positive pull on the market. Under the dual effect of cost support and demand follow-up, new orders in the market maintain a relatively strong pattern. In the short term, carbon black prices are easy to rise but hard to fall.

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