June 13 Natural Rubber Market Price Analysis

Analysis of natural rubber market prices on June 13

Index

On June 13, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in Qingdao market was 1,700 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market

Spot market

Supply:

Foreign: The continuous rain in the Thai production area has caused continuous obstruction of rubber tapping, and some factories have increased the price to compete for raw material production, and the price of raw materials has risen; the Vietnamese production area has entered the seasonal increment stage, but the rainy weather has frequently disturbed the rubber tapping work. The rhythm of new rubber in the early stage of production increase is limited, and the raw material purchase price remains high.

Domestic: There is more rainfall in the Yunnan production area, the rubber tapping work is not going well, the supply of rubber raw materials is tight, and the center of gravity of the raw material purchase price of the processing plant has moved up; the irregular precipitation weather disturbance in the Hainan production area has caused the rubber tapping work to proceed unsmoothly, the output of fresh rubber on the island continues to be poor, the circulation of raw materials in the market is tight, and the purchase price of raw materials has risen slightly.

Demand: It is understood that for semi-steel tires, the replacement market is slow in the cycle, the dealers have sufficient inventory, and the shipment volume is less than that of the second half of last month. The dealers' sales prices have a certain bargaining space, but the terminal stores are not very active in purchasing goods, and they maintain the rigid demand for replenishment without the intention of hoarding goods. For full-steel tires, the replacement market price is weak and stable during the cycle, and there is no news of direct price reduction. It is reported that in order to increase sales, various types of promotional activities were launched within the month, which were tied to sales. The purchase performance of downstream channel merchants was relatively flat, and no substantial promotion effect was seen.

List of futures and spot prices

Forecast for the future market

The closing price of the main rubber contract today showed an improving trend. From the supply side, the short-term typhoon intrusion in the domestic production area was unfavorable to the rubber tapping work, which supported the high price of raw materials to a certain extent, but the increase in rainfall did not reduce the expectation of the later increase in raw material supply, and the cost support lacked sustainability. On the demand side, downstream demand performed poorly, and people were cautious about replenishing their stocks. Holders were under pressure to ship goods, and market trading sentiment was weak. There was limited expectation that raw material prices would continue to rise in the short term.

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