Natural Rubber Daily: A Sudden Change in Trend!
Index
On July 29th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2155/ton, down $30/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Overall weather conditions in Thailand improved compared to the previous week, leading to an increase in new rubber production. Thai factories are actively shipping, increasing demand for raw material replenishment and raising raw material procurement prices. Vietnam is in its seasonal production increase cycle, with overall production progressing steadily, but frequent short-term rainfall in major producing areas has intermittently hampered tapping operations, limiting the actual release of raw materials.
Domestic: Weather conditions in Yunnan have improved, resulting in good rubber collection. The increased raw material supply has led to a slight easing in purchase prices. Weather conditions in Hainan are also improving, with tapping gradually resuming. As new rubber production steadily increases, latex purchase prices have slightly decreased.
On the demand side: It is understood that most companies maintained stable operations at the end of the month, with a few still scheduled for maintenance. Overall, supply-side production control continued, with companies flexibly adjusting production based on their own circumstances. Furthermore, companies faced continued pressure to ship goods at the end of the month, resulting in a slow inventory turnover. Many companies did not experience significant shortages, but some restricted production of economy-grade products.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, futures prices fluctuated and declined, with spot offers following suit. On the supply side, short-term rainfall will continue to cause disruptions, providing some support for raw material prices. However, production areas are in a seasonal supply increase cycle, leaving room for further declines in raw material procurement prices.
Downstream tire companies continued to control production at the end of the month, with overall industry operating rates below normal, dragging down spot market transactions. In the short term, negative factors are increasing, and rubber prices may exhibit a weak and volatile consolidation.
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