Natural Rubber Market Price Analysis(July 2nd)
Analysis of natural rubber market prices on July 2
Index
On July 2, the STR20 price index of the natural rubber Qingdao market was 1,730 US dollars/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.
Market analysis
Futures market
Spot market
Supply:
Foreign: Some areas of the Thai production area are still disturbed by rainfall, but the rubber tapping operation has gradually resumed. The raw material procurement price has obviously weakened during the cycle. Some factories have increased the price to rush to produce raw materials, and the price of raw materials has fallen slowly. The Vietnamese production area is currently in the seasonal increase stage as a whole, but there are still precipitation weather disturbances, and the rhythm of raw material production is slow. Some processing plants have stated that their production profits continue to lose money, which to a certain extent suppresses their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials. The factory's price-cutting purchase drags down the price of raw materials.
Domestic: There is more rainfall in the Yunnan production area, which affects the normal rubber tapping operation. The resistance to raw material acquisition has not decreased. The phenomenon of processing plants raising prices to rush to collect raw materials still exists, and the purchase price in the region remains high. In the Hainan production area, due to the poor transaction of concentrated milk spot market at high prices, the profit margin of processing plants has been squeezed. During the week, the sentiment of some concentrated milk processing plants to rush to buy raw materials at high prices has obviously cooled down, and the center of gravity of the purchase price of glue has slightly declined.
On the demand side: It is understood that some enterprises with maintenance plans have stopped working, and some other enterprises have completed maintenance. The output will gradually recover. At present, the overall operating rate of the tire industry is in a weak operating state. The shipment performance at the beginning of the month is not good, and the finished product inventory of enterprises is relatively sufficient.
List of futures and spot prices
Forecast for the future market
Today, the closing price of the main rubber contract has adjusted narrowly, with a slightly higher trend. On the supply side, the expectation of raw material volume has increased, and the cost support has begun to weaken. The downstream demand is in the off-season, and the active type of high-price purchase is relatively limited. The spot is under pressure.
The total spot warehouse of Qingdao Port has a significant accumulation rhythm. The market trading sentiment is weak. The superimposed storage news has limited boost to the market. The spot price is insufficient to rise. The market trading sentiment is weak. It is expected that the short-term rubber price may be weak.
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