Natural Rubber Market Price Analysis(June 18)

Analysis of natural rubber market prices on June 18

Index

On June 18, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in Qingdao market was 1,725 ​​USD/ton, up 15 USD/ton from the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market

Spot market

Supply:

Foreign: The continuous rain in the Thai production area has caused continuous obstruction of rubber tapping, and some factories have increased the price to compete for raw material production, and the price of raw materials has risen; the Vietnamese production area has entered the seasonal increment stage, but the rainy weather has frequently disturbed the rubber tapping work, and the rhythm of new rubber in the early stage of production increase has been limited, and the raw material purchase price has remained high.

Domestic: There has been a lot of rainfall in the Yunnan production area, the rubber tapping work has not been carried out smoothly, the supply of rubber raw materials is tight, and the center of gravity of the raw material purchase price of the processing plant has moved up; the irregular precipitation weather disturbance in the Hainan production area has caused the rubber tapping work to be unsmooth, the output of fresh rubber on the island has continued to be poor, the circulation of raw materials in the market has been tight, and the purchase price of raw materials has risen slightly.

Demand: It is understood that most semi-steel tire companies have stable equipment operation. Some of them have suspended production due to power plant maintenance, which has a certain drag on the overall output. Recently, the company's foreign trade shipments are still good, and the overall domestic sales have not seen a significant improvement. The overall order performance of the company is general. The new production capacity of some companies has not yet been released. In order to control the increase in inventory, some companies maintain a relatively low operating state.

List of futures and spot prices

Forecast for the future market

Today, the closing price of the main rubber contract has adjusted narrowly. From the supply side, short-term rainfall disturbances in domestic and foreign production areas are still frequent, which is not conducive to rubber tapping. To a certain extent, it supports the high price of raw materials, but the increase in rainfall will not reduce the expectation of raw material supply in the later period, and the cost support lacks sustainability; there is no obvious improvement in downstream demand, which has a certain suppression on the rise in rubber prices. However, the impact of macro news has gradually cooled down, and rubber prices have gradually returned to fundamentals. It is expected to remain relatively weak in the short term.

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