PVC: Futures prices hit the upper track
PVC futures analysis: On June 18, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract opened slightly higher, and the overall night trading maintained a good upward state. The futures price further broke through slightly in the early trading, and then consolidated at a high level.
It continued in the afternoon but closed at the high range of the day. V2509 contract opening price: 4832, highest price: 4907, lowest price: 4824, spread 83, increased position 8643 lots, position: 970660 lots, settlement price: 4876, yesterday's settlement: 4838, up 38, daily trading volume: 1073697 lots, deposited funds: 3.329 billion, capital inflow: 74.08 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market rose slightly, and the atmosphere in the market improved. From the comparison of valuations: North China rose by 10 yuan/ton, East China rose by 20 yuan/ton, South China rose by 30 yuan/ton, Northeast China rose by 20 yuan/ton, Central China rose by 10 yuan/ton, and Southwest China remained stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers began to increase slightly by 20 yuan/ton, and some companies still maintained a stable wait-and-see attitude. The futures price rose slightly, and the fixed price quotations of merchants in various regions in the spot market rose slightly. Although the spot price and the fixed price coexisted, the basis quotation advantage basically disappeared after the futures price went up. The spot prices in various regions basically maintained the previous quotation level, among which the basis quotation in East China was 09 contract (50-150), 09 contract in South China (0-20), 09 contract in the North (370-410), and 09 contract (380-450) for some sources in Southwest China. Although the spot market price has been raised, there is still room for negotiation on the actual transaction, and the upward price has suppressed demand, resulting in light transactions in the spot market.
PVC market outlook:
Futures: The PVC2509 contract price has shown a clear upward trend, with the high point of the price touching the upper track position, and the closing price has risen again at the end of the day. From the perspective of the single-day market trend, the price has relatively stabilized in the high range, and the position has increased slightly throughout the day. There are also certain long positions in the transaction, with 24.7 long positions compared to 23.0% short positions.
The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) has turned upward, and the golden cross trend of the KD line and MACD line at the daily level has expanded. The recent price fluctuations are all caused by the high point and high range, and the technical closing line has begun to show a certain positive trend. Overall, in the short term, while observing the pressure range, there may be a probability of further small upward push, but the amplitude may be limited.
Spot: First of all, the performance of both the futures and spot markets today is good, and prices are showing a slight upward trend, especially the futures prices have risen significantly. Although the spot market prices have increased, the amplitude is not as large as the adjustment of the futures prices.
The spot market has a light transaction volume during the high period, which is not ideal. Except for the rigid demand part of the downstream, the demand is suppressed by high prices.
There is no obvious variable factor guidance at the current supply and demand level. In terms of news policy, the central bank announced eight major financial opening measures: it will set up a digital RMB international operation center, carry out a pilot project for comprehensive reform of offshore trade financial services in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai, and work with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to study and promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading. Commodity sentiment also improved during the Wednesday period. Overall, in the short term, the spot price of PVC may break away from the low range and adjust in a narrow range.
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