Natural Rubber Special Issue No. 202512
Analysis of Natural Rubber Market Prices
Dry Rubber
In December, natural rubber prices maintained a trend of low at the beginning and high at the end. The average price of raw materials corrected but remained relatively high. Domestically, Yunnan's rubber-producing areas were completely shut down in the first half of the month, while Hainan's shut-down was nearing its end due to rainfall and seasonal factors. On the supply side, domestic production entered a downward trend as Yunnan and Hainan gradually ceased tapping. Increased arrivals and storage of overseas goods led to continued accumulation of port inventories, suppressing market sentiment. On the demand side, operating rates fluctuated. Some semi-steel tire manufacturers moderately increased production to meet market demand in the following month, slightly boosting the overall operating rate.
Natural Latex
In December, the average spot price of imported Thai bulk natural rubber latex in Zhejiang, China, declined slightly. Futures prices fluctuated upwards throughout the month, boosting bullish sentiment. Hainan rubber-producing areas gradually transitioned to the off-season. Overseas geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia, coupled with the appreciation of the Thai baht, kept raw material and cost prices high. With low inventory levels, Southeast Asian processors were unwilling to lower prices to move inventory, and domestic import replenishment profits continued to be negative, supporting traders' efforts to maintain spot prices. However, as imported shipments from consuming areas gradually arrived to replenish supplies, the open supply of concentrated latex from Vietnam increased, while downstream product manufacturers' demand followed slowly, resulting in weak actual purchase intentions and sluggish spot transactions, significantly dragging down rubber prices.
Market Forecast:
1. In January, some producing areas gradually entered the off-season, and raw material output is expected to narrow.
2. The operating rate of sample tire manufacturers is expected to decline in January.
3. Social inventories of natural rubber are expected to continue to accumulate in January.
2. Rubber Market Price Comparison This Month
International Market
Domestic Market
3. Rubber Market Price Analysis Charts
Natural Rubber Supply Analysis
1. Thai Production Area
In December, Thai latex prices trended downwards. Northeast Thailand entered its peak tapping season, but escalating geopolitical tensions between Thailand and Cambodia impacted local tapping and factory production. Coupled with restocking by factories, overall cup lump prices rebounded after a decline, but the overall trend remained downwards. As floods in southern Thailand gradually subsided, tapping and factory production resumed, and the anticipated increase in supply put pressure on raw materials, dragging down latex prices. Thai factories maintained raw material inventories of 1-2 months, with some reaching around 3 months, lower than the same period last year. Local and international tire manufacturers in Thailand maintained neutral purchasing activity, with low finished product inventories and shipments due in March/April/May/June.
2. Vietnam Production Area
At the beginning of December, rubber tapping in Vietnam was briefly disrupted by rainfall in the south and central and northern regions. This, coupled with reduced imported rubber, increased factory procurement costs, leading to tight raw material supply and a price increase. After mid-December, the weather gradually returned to normal, and raw material production recovered to normal levels. However, the lack of profit margins for imported rubber slowed the import pace. Domestic tire manufacturers continued to purchase only what they needed, and prices remained high until the end of the month without a significant decline. During the month, leading factories producing concentrated latex rubber operated at full capacity, while 3L rubber, affected by price inversions, insufficient supply stability, and high processing costs, primarily flowed to the domestic market. Driven by high-priced purchases by domestic tire manufacturers, factories slowed exports to China, with the proportion of exports significantly lower than domestic shipments. Only a small amount of rubber was shipped to surrounding Southeast Asian markets.
3. Yunnan Production Area
By December, rubber tapping in Yunnan had completely ceased.
4. Hainan Production Area
In December, Hainan's rubber-producing areas were affected by earlier rainfall and seasonal changes. The central and eastern regions entered a period of early cessation of rubber tapping, while some rubber plantations in the western production area continued tapping, but the number of taps per farmer decreased. Overall raw material output on the island decreased significantly, falling below the level of the same period last year. Simultaneously, the current latex yield is declining, increasing production costs. Private processing plants are gradually shutting down, weakening the overall raw material purchasing atmosphere in the market and causing raw material prices to fall month-on-month. The year-on-year decrease in Hainan's natural rubber production in 2025 supports persistently high raw material prices. Processing plants face increased production cost pressures, resulting in relatively limited profit margins and generally low production enthusiasm. As the tapping season nears its end, local processing plants' winter storage reserves are at a lower level than in previous years.
Imports and Exports
According to customs data, in November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technical classifications, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) reached 643,600 tons, an increase of 25.98% month-on-month and 14.69% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports totaled 5,871,600 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 16.98%.
In November, China's exports of natural rubber (including technical classifications, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) reached 8,200 tons, a decrease of 15.64% month-on-month and an increase of 9% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, cumulative exports reached 91,700 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 22.71%. In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technical classifications) reached 168,800 tons, an increase of 33.82% month-on-month and 58.29% year-on-year.
Natural Latex
In November 2025, natural latex imports totaled 47,200 tons, up 43.89% month-on-month and 26.42% year-on-year.
Natural Rubber Smoked Sheets
In November 2025, natural rubber smoked sheets imports totaled 35,400 tons, up 15.18% month-on-month and 113.21% year-on-year.
Mixtures of Natural and Synthetic Rubber
In November 2025, China's imports of mixtures of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 302,200 tons, up 17.83% month-on-month and down 7.88% year-on-year.
2. Import and Export Trend Chart
Global Rubber Production
The latest ANRPC report for November 2025 predicts that global natural rubber production will decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons in November, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; natural rubber consumption is expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months of the year, global natural rubber production is projected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, while consumption is expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons.
Global natural rubber production is projected to increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons by 2025. Specifically, Thailand is expected to increase by 1.2%, Indonesia by 4.3%, China by 6%, India by 5.6%, Vietnam by 1.3%, Malaysia by 4.2%, Cambodia by 5.6%, Myanmar by 5.3%, and other countries by 3.5%.
Global natural rubber consumption is projected to increase by 0.8% year-on-year to 15.565 million tons by 2025. Specifically, China is expected to increase by 2.5%, India by 3.4%, Thailand by 6.1%, Indonesia by 19.3%, Malaysia by 2.6%, Vietnam by 1.5%, Sri Lanka by 6.7%, Cambodia by a significant 110.3%, and other countries by 3.5%.
Note: Global natural rubber consumption data is based on the latest data and is for reference only.
Natural Rubber Inventory Analysis
In December, Qingdao's natural rubber inventory maintained an accumulating trend. The inventory situation was mixed this month. Dark-colored rubber entered its seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with domestic inventory continuing its upward trend; light-colored rubber, affected by supply-side disturbances, maintained a relatively low inventory level, providing some support for its price.
Natural Rubber Demand Analysis
Tires
In December, the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers in China was 70%; the operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 62%.
During the month, semi-steel tire manufacturers continued to control production, with overall operating rates remaining relatively stable. Shipments this month were weaker than last month, and companies controlled production to manage inventory. Towards the end of the month, with the release of overseas orders, some companies moderately increased production, slightly boosting the overall capacity rate, but overall, production control continued.
The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers showed signs of decline during the month. The seasonal off-season increased sales pressure, and some companies had maintenance plans at the end of the month. In addition, there was cross-maintenance among sample companies during the month, weakening the overall supply side.
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