Natural Rubber Supply and Demand Analysis

Index

On September 16, the STR20 price index of the natural rubber market in Qingdao was $1,870/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market Supply:

Internationally: Continued rain in Thailand has impacted rubber tapping, tightening raw material supplies and prompting factories to purchase at high prices, driving average raw material prices higher. Weather conditions in Vietnam's producing areas have seen limited improvement, leading to persistent raw material shortages. Processors are actively procuring raw materials to ensure order fulfillment, supporting relatively strong prices.

Domestically: Improved weather conditions in Yunnan's producing areas have eased supply pressures. However, standard rubber processing plants are actively replenishing inventory to meet production targets, resulting in strong demand for raw materials, supporting a slight increase in raw material prices. Rainfall in parts of Hainan's producing areas has frequently impacted tapping operations, resulting in a slow seasonal increase in new rubber production. Constrained by orders and profit performance, local processing plants are generally unenthusiastic about rushing to purchase raw materials at high prices.

On the demand side: It is understood that tire manufacturers are operating their facilities steadily for now, with most companies still implementing flexible production controls. Some common specifications remain out of stock, but overall shipment performance has not seen significant improvement. Some companies have been able to replenish out-of-stock specifications, and the current shortages have had a limited impact on overall shipments. Only some companies are experiencing common stockouts and are waiting for orders to ship.

Futures and Spot Price Overview

Market Forecast

Today, the main rubber futures contract continued to fluctuate within a range, with an unstable center of gravity and subdued trading. While overseas raw material prices declined slightly, they remained resilient overall. Qingdao port inventories continued to decline, driven by downstream pre-holiday stocking demand. With fundamentals and macroeconomic factors still in a state of conflict, rubber prices are expected to remain range-bound.

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