Polyethylene PE: Most spot prices are weak and consolidated, only linear prices remain strong(December 20, 2024)

December 23, 2024, 11:55 AM

TDD

5544

Guide

Highlights at a glance

The domestic petrochemical inventory for oil polyolefins stands at 595,000 tons, down by 15,000 tons. The PE market shows a weak consolidation trend, with linear prices rising in East China while other markets remain stable but weak. International oil prices fell slightly amid economic concerns. Short-term forecasts indicate fluctuating PE market conditions due to mixed supply and demand factors.

Domestic petrochemical inventory: The inventory of two oil polyolefins is 595,000 tons, down 15,000 tons from yesterday.

Shenhua auction statistics: Linear today's auction volume is 184 tons, and today's transaction volume is 184 tons. High pressure today's auction volume is 0 tons, and today's transaction volume is 0 tons. Low pressure today's auction volume is 0 tons, and today's transaction volume is 0 tons.

PE spot market analysis: Today's domestic PE market as a whole showed a weak consolidation trend. Except for the rise in linear prices in East China, the prices in other markets were stable and weak, with a decline ranging from 20-50 yuan/ton. International oil prices fell slightly, mainly due to concerns about the economic outlook in the crude oil market and the possible easing of the situation between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the linear spot supply in the market is still tight. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is relatively positive driven by the capital side, and the transaction remains high. However, the transaction level of other varieties of supply continues to fall, and the production expectations put pressure on the market. In addition, the overall start-up level of the downstream industry has declined, and traders continue to make concessions to promote transactions.

PE spot trend forecast: In terms of raw materials, multiple factors are intertwined in the crude oil market in the short term. Among them, the positive factors include the continuation of the OPEC+ production reduction atmosphere, signs of improvement in the Asian economy, and the possible increase in crude oil demand as the Christmas holidays in Europe and the United States approach. The negative factors include the continued concerns about the global demand outlook in the crude oil market and the high operation of the US dollar index. In terms of supply, there are no PE units scheduled for maintenance next week, and PE units involving Shanghai Petrochemical, Sino-Korea Petrochemical and other companies are scheduled to resume operation, most of which involve LDPE varieties. It is expected that in the short term, except for the continued increase in LDPE supply, the supply pressure of HDPE and LLDPE in the market is general. In terms of demand, it is expected that the overall terminal demand will remain relatively weak, the overall new orders of the downstream may decrease, and there may be a certain resistance to high-priced sources. Although some downstream industries may have improved to a certain extent due to the holiday effect, the overall support of the demand side for the PE market is limited. Overall, the polyethylene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Mainstream PE market quotes:

PE futures analysis: L2505 opening price on December 20: 8162, highest price: 8169, lowest price: 8076, position: 528493, settlement price: 8117, yesterday's settlement: 8162, drop: 45, daily trading volume: 330426 lots, deposited funds: 2.991 billion, capital outflow: 430,000.

Domestic PE Index: According to Tuduoduo data, on December 20, the domestic HDPE spot index was 8057, down 6; the LDPE film spot index was 10599, down 29; and the LLDPE spot index was 8924, up 15.