Polyethylene (PE): Plummeted! (June 15)
Domestic Petrochemical Inventory: Sinopec and PetroChina's polyolefin inventory totaled 750,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week.
PE Spot Market Analysis: Today, the domestic PE market showed an overall weak consolidation trend. In North China, prices for linear, high-density, low-density film, and low-density fiber grades all declined, with price reductions ranging from 40-200 yuan/ton. In East China, prices for linear, high-density, low-density film, and low-density fiber grades all fell compared to last Friday, with price adjustments ranging from 50-100 yuan/ton.
In South China, only the price of low-density fiber grades remained stable, while prices for linear, high-density, and low-density film grades all declined, with price reductions ranging from 50-100 yuan/ton. The easing of international geopolitical tensions directly led to weakening cost support for polyethylene raw materials.
Coupled with weak market liquidity, the overall market was under significant pressure. Affected by this, domestic polyethylene producers' ex-factory quotations showed a stable to slightly declining pattern, with some sources lowering their prices by 50-500 yuan/ton.
Traders adjusted their prices flexibly in response to market trends, leading to a further decline in market offers. The overall trading atmosphere in the industry is currently weak, with most practitioners adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach and showing little willingness to actively trade.
Transactions are no longer confined to fixed prices, and orders are generally finalized through flexible negotiations. The market lacks effective positive catalysts, and participation from all parties is conservative, resulting in a slowdown in the overall pace of spot trading.
PE Spot Market Forecast: In the futures market, the L2609 contract showed a slightly stronger, narrowly upward trend in the night session. The price experienced a sharp drop in the morning session, shifting from a previously strong trend to a one-sided downward trend. In the afternoon session, the price entered a low-level consolidation phase.
The significant easing of tensions in the Middle East has weakened the previous support for raw materials, significantly reducing confidence in the entire polyethylene market. Faced with the weakening market, many producers have proactively adjusted their pricing, successively lowering their ex-factory prices. To quickly recover inventory and increase transactions, merchants in the market have also followed suit with price reductions, creating a strong atmosphere of price concessions.
In contrast, most downstream application sectors are adopting a conservative approach, with no large-scale stockpiling. Most are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, with only a few customers with immediate needs making small replenishments as prices have fallen. Overall, the purchasing pace is slow. Major downstream industries such as packaging, injection molding, and film production are operating steadily, but due to generally weak end-user orders, raw material procurement is adhering to the principle of purchasing only as needed, with a reluctance to stockpile.
Considering the current market situation, the cost advantage has disappeared, downstream demand has not improved, and the market lacks upward momentum. It is expected that the polyethylene market will remain weak in the short term, with overall market transactions remaining lukewarm.
Mainstream PE Market Prices:
PE Futures Analysis: June 15th, L2609 opening price: 7900, highest price: 7978, lowest price: 7590, open interest: 380436, settlement price: 7729, previous settlement price: 7932, down: 203, daily trading volume: 689995 lots, idle funds: 2.036 billion, capital outflow: 19.74 million.
Domestic PE Index: According to data from TuDuoDuo, on June 15th, the domestic HDPE spot index was 8589, down 75; the LDPE film spot index was 9743, down 59; the LLDPE spot index was 8352, down 59.
Shenhua Auction Statistics: Linear PE auction volume today: 100 tons, transaction volume today: 33 tons. High-density polyethylene auction volume today: 0 tons, transaction volume today: 0 tons. The auction volume for low-pressure gas today was 148 tons, with 0 tons sold.
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