Polyethylene PE: Spot prices are stable with small fluctuations, and linear supply is still tight(December 25, 2024)

December 26, 2024, 2:47 PM

TDD

5412

Guide

Highlights at a glance

The domestic polyolefin inventory stands at 590,000 tons, down by 20,000 tons. Today's PE market shows stable yet fluctuating prices with varied trends across regions. Auction statistics reveal no activity in high and low-pressure segments. With geopolitical factors influencing crude oil prices, the polyethylene market is expected to experience fluctuations. Supply remains tight, especially for LLDPE, while demand is cautious.

Domestic petrochemical inventory: The inventory of polyolefins from the two oils is 590,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from yesterday.

Shenhua auction statistics: Linear auction volume today is 300 tons, and today's transaction volume is 300 tons. High pressure auction volume today is 0 tons, and today's transaction volume is 0 tons. Low pressure auction volume today is 0 tons, and today's transaction volume is 0 tons.

PE spot market analysis: Today, the overall domestic PE market showed a trend of stable and small fluctuations. Among them, the high pressure price in East China and the low pressure film material price in North China fell, the linear price in North China rose, and the prices in other markets were temporarily stable. The API crude oil inventory in the United States fell beyond expectations, and the international oil price rose to US$70.1 per barrel, which strengthened the cost support for the PE market. In addition, the spot supply of LLDPE in the market is still tight, and its market sentiment is good. Traders mostly push up their quotations. The market atmosphere of other sources is cautious and wait-and-see. Some traders make small concessions. In addition, the downstream is resistant to high-priced raw materials, and the trading in the market is general.

PE spot trend forecast: In terms of raw materials, CITIC Construction Investment said that there is little news on the supply and demand of the crude oil market, and geopolitical factors may become the theme of recent transactions. Crude oil inventories remain low, and oil prices will still be in a strong and volatile trend. In terms of supply, although some newly added PE units have entered the production stage one after another recently, they have not yet produced qualified products, and the actual impact on the supply in the market is limited. Among them, the tight supply of LLDPE still exists, and it may continue to support a slight increase in its market price in the short term, while the supply of HDPE and LDPE may gradually increase. In terms of demand, downstream demand is in the off-season, and the willingness to replenish raw material PP may decline, and there is a certain resistance to high prices. Overall, the polyethylene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Mainstream PE market quotes:

PE futures analysis: L2505 opening price on December 25: 8092, highest price: 8132, lowest price: 8078, position: 516909, settlement price: 8106, yesterday's settlement: 8083, increase: 23, daily trading volume: 288293 lots, deposited funds: 2.924 billion, capital outflow: 15.87 million.

Domestic PE index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic HDPE spot index on December 25 was 8044, down 2; the LDPE film spot index was 10539, down 4; the LLDPE spot index was 8964, up 32.