PVC: Futures lows move down, 05 contracts have some long positions, and spot prices are weak(December 20, 2024)
PVC futures analysis: Opening price of V2505 contract on December 20: 5292, highest price: 5323, lowest price: 5262, position: 733869, settlement price: 5288, yesterday's settlement: 5311, down 23, daily trading volume: 471598 lots, deposited funds: 2.732 billion, capital inflow: 201 million.
List of comprehensive prices in various regions: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price in the domestic PVC market continued to fall slightly, and the transaction atmosphere in various regions was weak. From the comparison of valuations: Among them, North China fell by 20-30 yuan/ton, East China fell by 20-30 yuan/ton, South China fell by 40-50 yuan/ton, Northeast China rose by 50 yuan/ton at the low end, Central China rose by 20 yuan/ton, and Southwest China rose by 20 yuan/ton. Some upstream PVC manufacturers maintain stable quotations. Due to the poor order volume of the first generation of contracts, some companies are not in a hurry to adjust prices. Some companies still reduce prices by 30-50 yuan/ton to stimulate shipments. The futures market 05 contract positions have increased significantly, but the futures price trend is sluggish and weak in the market. Compared with yesterday, the fixed price quotations of merchants in various regions in the spot market continued to fall slightly, and the basis adjustment was not much. At present, the spot market quotations are mostly turned to the 05 contract, among which the basis quotations in the East China region are 05 contracts-(300-440), the 05 contracts in the South China region are-(230-280), the 05 contracts in the North region are-(550-580), and the ex-factory 05 contracts in some sources in the Southwest region are-(650-810). Although the downward price advantage of the futures price is obvious, the spot market transaction has not improved.
From the perspective of futures: The night market price of PVC2505 contract opened high and went low, and the futures price fell slightly. Since the beginning of the morning session, the futures price has been consolidating at a small low level, and the fluctuation range has narrowed. It opened slightly higher in the afternoon, and then continued to fluctuate until the end. The 2505 contract fluctuated in the range of 5262-5323 throughout the day, with a spread of 61. The 05 contract increased its position by 50,740 lots, and the current position was 733,869 lots. The 2501 contract closed at 4999, with a position of 414,438 lots.
PVC market forecast:
Futures: The PVC2505 contract futures market refreshed the lowest point of the week at 5262 points, and presented a positive column with a long lower shadow throughout the day. There were certain long positions in the market, of which 26.8% were long compared to 25.4% of short positions. When the futures price fell to the position close to the previous low, there were certain short-term long orders on the market. However, the technical level of the 2505 contract shows that the closing is not good. The three tracks of the 2505 contract Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) open slightly downward, and the KD line at the daily level shows a dead cross trend. Although the MACD line has a small golden cross, the distance between the two lines is shortened. After the transfer of positions and months, the operation of futures prices may still face certain challenges. In the short term, the futures price will observe the performance of the low range of 5250-5380.
Spot: First of all, most commodities have completed the transfer of positions and months, but commodity sentiment is relatively weak, and the overall cultural commodity index has also been declining recently. The fundamentals of single product PVC also have certain contradictions. The supply side continues to be stable at a high level, and there are fewer maintenance plans in the later period. Although exports are also currently driven by the normal situation, domestic demand is currently facing a seasonal off-season, and demand is gradually declining. The high inventory presented by the supply and demand levels restricts the futures and spot markets, and the current warehouse receipts remain at a high level of more than 100,000 lots. The price of calcium carbide at the cost port of calcium carbide method has risen recently, but the overall price of PVC is limited. Overall, the current prices in the two markets are not driven by policies, and the PVC spot prices may still maintain a low and narrow consolidation trend in the short term.
Domestic PVC Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 4946.35 on December 20, down 29.21, a range of 0.587%. The ethylene-based PVC spot index was 5224.00, down 26.43, a range of 0.503%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index price difference was 277.65.
