PVC: Futures showed a physical negative column, the market continued to leave the market, and the spot market weakened slightly.（December 13, 2024）
PVC futures analysis: V2501 contract opening price on December 13: 5069, highest price: 5069, lowest price: 5002 Positions: 657113, settlement price: 5028, yesterday's settlement: 5057, down 29, daily trading volume: 668849 lots, precipitation Funds: 2.31 billion, capital outflow: 140 million.
Comprehensive price list for each region: Yuan/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market have declined slightly, and the market has weakened. Comparative valuation: North China fell by 10 yuan/ton, East China was stable, South China fell by 10 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 20 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 30 yuan/ton, and southwest China was stable. Some upstream PVC production companies maintained stable quotations, while some companies adjusted their prices in a chaotic manner. Some companies increased slightly by 20-30 yuan/ton, and some companies lowered their quotations by 50 yuan/ton. Upstream companies have different quotations.The narrow range operation of futures has weakened, and the spot price quoted by merchants in various regions of the spot market has declined slightly. After the futures price fell, the point advantage has increased. Among them, the basis difference in East China is 05 contracts - (280-370-450), South China Region 05 contract - (300), northern region 01 contract - (260), some supply from the southwest region 05 contract - (750). During the Friday period, the two quotation methods coexisted in the spot market, but the transactions were light. Downstream product companies mainly needed to purchase, and the enthusiasm for inquiries was low.
From a futures perspective: The futures price of the PVC2501 contract opened higher and moved lower in the night session, with the futures price falling slightly. The price weakened slightly in the late trading at the beginning of early trading, with the lowest point of 5002 almost falling below the integer mark, and the lows in the afternoon were mainly consolidated in a narrow range. The fluctuation range of the 2501 contract throughout the day is 5002-5069, with a price difference of 67. The 01 contract has reduced its positions by 32,462 lots, and the positions held so far are 657,113. The 2505 contract closed at 5,374, with 505,224 positions held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The PVC2501 contract futures market continued to reduce positions, while the corresponding 05 contract began to gradually increase positions. As of Friday's closing, the positions of the 2501 contract were 657,113 hands, and the positions of the 2505 contract were 505,224 hands. The 01 contract weakened slightly on Friday, and the technical level showed that the opening of the third track of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) narrowed slightly. However, the market trend of lightening positions made the technical closing line unstable and lacked certain reference. After the stimulus from the policy during the week, Friday's low once again approached the 5,000 integer mark. After the heat subsided, there was still a certain pressure on the disk operation. In the short term, futures prices continued to shift positions and change the market, and continued to observe 4950 Volatility performance in the -5100 range.
In terms of spot: In the market trend of shifting positions to months, the market trend of reducing positions on the disk still has a certain impact on the spot market. Although during the rebound of the two markets during the week, manufacturing companies and middlemen are actively shipping goods to digest inventory. Mainly, but helpless in the spot market Transactions are not ideal, and they mostly appear in the form of small-order purchases that are just needed. When the price reaches low prices in the early stage, and when the ex-factory price shows a good basis, some merchants have a certain intention to stock up, but this is only the prototype of the idea. , but disappeared as the price rebounded.
Domestic PVC index: According to Tu Duoduo's data calculation, the domestic calcium carbide method PVC spot index was 4999.96 on December 13, down 9.20, or 0.184%. The spot index of ethylene process PVC was 5279.54, down 10.00, or 0.189%. The calcium carbide process index fell, the ethylene process index fell, and the ethylene process-carbide process index price difference was 279.58.
