PVC: Futures showed a physical negative column, the market continued to leave the market, and the spot market weakened slightly.(December 16, 2024)
PVC futures analysis: V2501 contract opening price on December 16: 5018, highest price: 5055, lowest price: 4967 Positions: 605455, settlement price: 5000, yesterday's settlement: 5028, down 28, daily trading volume: 839879 hands, precipitation Funds: 2.14 billion, capital outflow: 170 million.
Comprehensive price list for each region: Yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price trend in the domestic PVC market is chaotic, and the quotations on the market are inconsistent. Comparative valuation: North China fell by 30 yuan/ton, East China fell by 50 yuan/ton, South China fell by 50 yuan/ton, Northeast China rose by 20-40 yuan/ton, Central China was stable, and high-end southwest China rose by 30 yuan. /ton.Most of the upstream PVC production companies maintained stable quotations, and some companies slightly lowered their quotations by 50 yuan/ton. The price trend of the futures market first fell and then rose, and the late price increased in the afternoon. Therefore, the spot market quotation price fell in the morning period, and the point price advantage was relatively obvious. At present, the quotation on the floor has basically shifted to the 05 contract, among which the basis spread in East China is quoted at 05. Contract - (300-440), South China region 05 contract - (300), Northern region 05 contract - (560-600), some supply from the southwest region 05 contract - (810). Post prices rose in the afternoon, and the spot market offers recovered somewhat, recovering part of the decline. However, even if spot prices were adjusted frequently, there was no obvious improvement in transactions, and downstream purchases were mainly for rigid needs.
From a futures perspective: The futures price of the PVC2501 contract opened higher and moved lower in the night session, with the futures price weakening slightly during the session. Late prices began to consolidate at a low level in a small range in early trading, then rose in the afternoon and closed at a high level in late trading. The fluctuation range of the 2501 contract throughout the day is 4967-5055, with a price difference of 88. The 01 contract has reduced its positions by 51,658 lots, and the positions held so far are 605,455. The 2505 contract closed at 5,382, with 531,882 positions held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The PVC2501 contract futures market continues to reduce positions, with 51,658 positions being reduced during the Monday session. In the overall plasticizing sector, polyolefin PP and PE have completed the move to the next month, while PVC positions are large, and it takes a certain amount of time to move the position to the next month. At that time, the futures market trend was unstable on Monday, falling first and then rising, and the futures price recovered somewhat. Both long and short parties had a need to move positions.The technical level shows that the opening of the third track of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) has narrowed significantly. At present, there is insufficient movement in the two cities. The market movement of positions and months has slightly deviated from the fundamental operation. In the short term, the movement of futures prices may continue to show a shift. The monthly market situation will be changed, but it will also be affected by the temporary news policy. Continue to observe the fluctuation performance in the 4950-5100 range.
On the spot side: Quotations in the spot market were relatively chaotic on Monday. In the early trading, the quotation mentality on the market was weak. The price fell slightly compared with last Friday. In the afternoon, some merchants began to tentatively recover the decline, but there was still no good atmosphere in terms of transactions. Upstream chlor-alkali companies are actively shipping goods, but currently in the spot market, except for small orders that are just needed, no obvious intention to stock up has been heard.In terms of PVC fundamentals, the cost of calcium carbide PVC has risen recently, further putting pressure on companies to produce single products. In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures market prices rose, supported by China's plan to increase economic stimulus, Russia and Iran may face more severe sanctions, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week. Overall, although the PVC spot market price will also be affected by news from all parties in the market, it is difficult to get rid of the situation of slight consolidation at a low level.
Domestic PVC index: According to Tu Duoduo's data calculation, the domestic calcium carbide method PVC spot index was 4970.99 on December 16, down 28.97, or 0.579%. The spot index of ethylene process PVC was 5247.33, down 32.21, or 0.610%. The calcium carbide process index fell, the ethylene process index fell, and the ethylene process-carbide process index price difference was 276.34.
