PVC: Futures, Spot & Market Outlook Today
PVC futures analysis: On July 9, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract opened slightly higher, and then adjusted in a narrow range. In the morning, the futures price continued to be consolidated on the basis of the night trading, and rose significantly in the late afternoon, with the highest point rising to 4984. V2509 contract opening price: 4891, highest price: 4984, lowest price: 4891, spread 93, increased position 32878 lots, position: 967373 lots, settlement price: 4929, yesterday's settlement: 4886, up 43, daily trading volume: 974935 lots, deposited funds: 3.361 billion, capital inflow: 159 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price trend of the domestic PVC market is differentiated, with a slight increase in the morning and active suspension in the afternoon. From the comparison of valuations: North China rose by 20-30 yuan/ton, East China rose by 30 yuan/ton, South China rose by 30 yuan/ton, Northeast China rose by 20 yuan/ton, Central China rose by 30 yuan/ton, and Southwest China rose by 30 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers mostly remained stable.
Although the futures price rose slightly, the upstream factories mostly waited and watched in the morning when there was little fluctuation. The futures price rose instantly at the closing of the afternoon, but at this time most of the upstream factories had already made their quotations.
The spot market quoted a fixed price slightly in the morning. After the futures price rose in the late afternoon, some merchants in the spot market raised their quotations after the closing, and some merchants closed their quotations and waited and watched.
The basis did not increase much, among which the basis in East China quoted 09 contract (50-150), 09 contract in South China (40-80), 09 contract in the North (370-420-450), and some sources in the Southwest quoted 09 contract - (410-460-530). Although the two quotation methods coexist, the market transaction lacks the previous period.
PVC market forecast:
Futures: The PVC2509 contract price rose significantly in the late trading, with the highest point of 4984, and the position increased significantly in the late trading. In terms of transaction, the long opening rate was 25.3% compared with the short opening rate of 25.8%.
The sharp rise in the price in the afternoon was relatively unexpected. The cultural commodity index also rose in the late trading. At the close of the midday trading, the main domestic futures contracts rose more than fell. Polysilicon rose by more than 5%, coking coal rose by nearly 4%, coke, pure benzene, and alumina rose by more than 2%, and SC crude oil, soda ash, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), European container shipping line, palm oil, and ferromanganese rose by more than 1%.
PVC rarely makes the list. With the obvious upward trend in the late trading, we expect that the futures price may have a greater probability of touching the "5" head, but be wary of the pressure from above.
Spot: The futures market showed a sharp upward trend in the afternoon, driving the enthusiasm of afternoon quotations. With a slight increase in the spot market in the morning, the closing price in the afternoon even rose for the second time, but the increase was relatively limited by demand. The increase in spot prices was not as large as that in the futures market, and the downstream was relatively resistant to high prices.
The increase in PVC futures and spot prices was basically driven by the coal system, and market rumors were related to the closed-door discussion of the exchange. Regarding the price increase in the two markets, the views of the industry chain are divided. Some believe that there may be further upward movement, while others believe that the increase in sentiment is difficult to improve substantially.
It will still be limited by high inventory and weak demand. Overall, we expect that spot prices may follow up further in the short term, but the magnitude may be affected by fundamentals.
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