PVC Futures & Spot: Narrow Range Trend
PVC futures analysis: On July 18, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract was adjusted in a narrow range, and the adjustment of the futures price continued the state of the late trading on Thursday. The futures price rose slightly from the beginning of the morning, but the highest point of 4995 and the futures price fell, and the low position was adjusted in the afternoon until the end.
V2509 contract opening price: 4955, highest price: 4995, lowest price: 4927, spread 68, increased position 18093 lots, position: 984418 lots, settlement price: 4957, yesterday's settlement: 4944, up 13, daily trading volume: 1000854 lots, deposited funds: 3.402 billion, capital inflow: 50.35 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price trend of the domestic PVC market is still differentiated, and the quotations in the morning and afternoon are different. Comparison of valuations: North China fell by 10 yuan/ton, East China fell by 20 yuan/ton, South China fell by 270 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 20 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 10 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell by 20 yuan/ton.
The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers mostly remained stable. Although the futures price strengthened in the morning, most companies were in a wait-and-see attitude during Friday, and there was not much feedback. However, the spot market quotations in the morning rose slightly due to the strengthening of futures prices. After the futures price fell in the afternoon, the increase was waived or returned to yesterday's quotation.
The spot price and the fixed price coexisted, and the basis adjustment was not large. The basis quotations in East China were 09 contracts (70-150-170), 09 contracts in South China (50-100), 09 contracts in the North (370-450), and some sources in the Southwest were 09 contracts (250-460-560). Although the two quotation methods coexist, there were not many transactions in the spot market on Friday, and the downstream enthusiasm for taking goods was not good.
PVC market outlook:
Futures: The operation of the PVC2509 contract price has a certain upward trend in the morning period. The rising high point of the futures price did not break through the 5-digit head, and there was a short opening at the high price. In terms of the full-day transaction, 25.2% of the short openings were compared with 23.2% of the long openings. The increase in short openings caused the futures price to fall, and the fluctuation range of the futures price was fluctuating within the range as we expected.
The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) have narrowed significantly, and the narrowing market is in the middle track position, which increases the uncertainty of the futures price direction.
At present, there is insufficient guidance from the fundamentals and policies. In the short term, the operation of the futures price may still maintain a narrow adjustment trend. Continue to observe the operation adjustment of the middle track range of 4880-5000.
Spot: The upward trend of futures prices can still lead to a slight increase in spot market quotations in the morning, but the amplitude is not enough. Instead, there is a correction in the afternoon. It can be seen that futures are still under pressure to operate in a high range, and the spot market lacks sufficient support, which cannot make the spot price appear in the long term.
There were few transactions at high prices in the spot market on Friday. There were some urgent sources of goods in the market with slightly lower prices. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the spot transactions in the market were weak.
At present, there are still no major variable factors in the supply and demand level. In the foreign market, international oil prices interrupted the previous three consecutive declines and turned to rise, because drones continued to attack Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields, indicating that risks in the turbulent region continue to exist.
In addition, the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories and better-than-expected economic data pushed up oil prices. Overall, in the short term, PVC spot prices will continue to adjust in a narrow range.
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