PVC Futures & Spot Price Trend

PVC futures analysis: On July 23, the PVC2509 contract opened at a high point of 5287, and then the futures price weakened slightly. The futures price fell significantly in the morning, and the intraday decline was large. The trend of a small decline continued in the afternoon, but it rose slightly in the late trading. V2509 contract opening price: 5260, highest price: 5287, lowest price: 5096, spread 191, reduced position 209 lots, position: 865052 lots, settlement price: 5194, yesterday's settlement: 5186, up 8, daily trading volume: 1805972 lots, deposited funds: 3.119 billion, capital outflow: 66.77 million.

Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton

PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price in the domestic PVC market fell, giving up the increase, and the atmosphere weakened. From the comparison of valuations: North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, East China fell by 20-40 yuan/ton, South China fell by 20-40 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 20 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 20 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell by 20-30 yuan/ton.

The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers remained stable, and some still raised by 50 yuan/ton. At present, the increase in ex-factory prices and the selling prices of spot market merchants are inverted. The increase in PVC ex-factory prices is greater than the adjustment in the spot market. On Wednesday, the prices of both futures and spot markets fell, giving up some of the previous gains, and the decline widened in the afternoon.

There were not many adjustments in futures prices, among which the basis price in East China was 09 contract (100-200), 09 contract in South China (50-100), 09 contract in the North (400-500), and some sources in Southwest China were 09 contract-(300-460-600). Although the futures price is going down, the current position and price advantage is still not big. There is still a certain wait-and-see mentality in the downstream, and the transaction is light.

PVC market forecast:

Futures: The operation of the PVC2509 contract price has shown a trend of callback. From the perspective of the fluctuation range of the futures price, it is similar to yesterday, but the trend is completely opposite. Today's futures price has fallen significantly from the high point. The technical trend lines are still positive and have not been broken.

Among them, the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) are opening upward, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level still show a golden cross trend. At the close of the midday session, the main domestic futures contracts rose and fell, and the cultural commodity index also showed a certain downward trend during the day and in the afternoon, but the decline of PVC was greater than the overall trend.

Overall, in the short term, the operation of the futures price observed the fluctuation performance and stability within the range of 5070-5230.

Spot: First, there is a certain price inversion in the spot market. PVC manufacturers have increased their prices significantly during the week. The ex-factory prices in Inner Mongolia are basically 4650-4780 yuan/ton. The prices in Xinjiang have also risen significantly. The prices in the consumption areas are inverted compared with the intermediary prices.

There is a large room for negotiation in the spot market. Even so, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers is not good. While the upward trend of the prices in the futures and spot markets is supported by policies and news, it lacks the support and follow-up of its fundamentals. 

The spot market is constrained by demand and the shipment rhythm is not good. Although the price increase is more active than the previous period, it is far from the point of driving demand to follow up. After the mood cooled down, the PVC futures and spot markets weakened, and there was a potential impact on the Sino-US tariff negotiations (when China and the United States signed the first round of tariff negotiation agreement in Geneva, they decided to negotiate again within the next 90 days.) Overall, in the short term, the spot price may be narrowly corrected on the basis of today's correction.

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