PVC Market Plunge on Oct 14, 2025
PVC Futures Analysis: The PVC2601 contract price began to decline in the night session on October 14th, reaching a high of 4721 and then weakening continuously. Starting in the morning session, the price continued to fluctuate narrowly at a low level.
Although there was a slight correction in the afternoon, the decline was minor, and the all-day low was refreshed. The PVC2601 contract opened at 4717, reached a high of 4721, and a low of 4665, with a spread of 56. Opening positions increased by 19,246 lots, bringing the total open interest to 1,254,279 lots.
The settlement price was 4684. Yesterday's settlement price was 4720, down 36. Daily trading volume was 736,644 lots. Deposited funds: 4.12 billion yuan, and inflows: 38.14 million yuan.
Regional Price Summary: Yuan/ton
PVC Spot Market: The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market continued to decline, essentially breaking below the previous low. Comparing price estimates, prices fell by 20 yuan/ton in North China, 10-50 yuan/ton in East China, 20-40 yuan/ton in South China, 30-40 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 20 yuan/ton in Central China, and 30 yuan/ton in Southwest China.
Upstream PVC manufacturers are still experiencing price corrections, with ex-factory prices falling by 30-50 yuan/ton. Upstream manufacturers are skeptical about their offers, and orders haven't changed significantly after the price cuts. Futures prices are declining, hitting new lows.
Spot market bids are mostly lower, and basis spreads are narrowing significantly. Basis spreads for the 01 contract are -(30, -100, -130) in East China, -(10, -50) in South China, -(300, -350) in North China, and -(200, -300) for some sources in Southwest China. While basis spread offers offer trading advantages, downstream buyers are less enthusiastic about taking delivery. Until clear market support emerges, spot market activity is expected to remain subdued.
PVC Market Forecast:
Futures: The PVC 2601 contract price has broken its previous low in the main continuation, reaching 4665, the year's lowest point. The price has fallen below the lower support level four times in a row, signaling a full bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands (13, 13, and 2) have all turned downward, and the daily KD and MACD lines continue to form a death cross. The market continues to see a slight increase in open interest.
As of now, the total open interest in the 2601 contract is 1,254,279 lots, still dominated by short positions. This bearish technical outlook stems from insufficient fundamental and policy guidance. Given the early stages of the fourth quarter, futures prices are expected to face some pressure in the short term. The downward range of 4650-4700 remains under observation.
Spot market: The Cultural Goods Index continued its downward trend, closing at a low of 159.36, reflecting negative sentiment across commodities. With the potential for a golden September rally missed and no signs of a silver October looming, overall commodity prices are starting the fourth quarter on a weak note. For the 2601 contract, the current low in both the futures and spot markets has already broken below the previous low, reaching its lowest point in 2025.
Supply and demand factors are failing to provide significant support for prices in both markets, with high supply, weak demand, and elevated inventories continuing to weigh, coupled with subdued export expectations. International oil prices closed higher, recovering some of the losses from last Friday.
The US President softened his rhetoric toward China over the weekend, while ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine provided some upward momentum. However, the prospect of oversupply is limiting price gains. Overall, the spot market is expected to remain subdued in the short term.
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