Interpretation of Malaysia's natural rubber supply and demand data in November

Interpretation of Malaysia's natural rubber supply and demand data in November

In November 2023, Malaysia's natural rubber output was 30,700 tons, a decrease of 6.91% from 32,900 tons month-on-month, and an increase of 3.61% compared with 28,000 tons in November 2022. The main reason is that Malaysia is located near Chitong, which belongs to the tropical rainforest climate and tropical monsoon climate, with high temperature and rain all year round, with the dry season from March to October and the rainy season from November to February of the following year, which is relatively rainy than the dry season. After entering November, Malaysia ushered in the traditional rainy season, and the rainfall is expected to increase significantly, and Malaysia's natural rubber production has also entered a state of decline.

The import volume of natural rubber in November 2023 was 110,500 tons, an increase of 18.44% from 93,300 tons in the previous month and an increase of 11.28% compared with 99,300 tons in November 2022. The main types of imported natural rubber are standard rubber and natural rubber latex. Its main import sources are Thailand, Côte d'Ivoire, the Philippines, Myanmar, etc. In terms of Malaysia's natural rubber imports, the growth of imports has been maintained for up to four months, and the import volume in November has been at a high level in the same period in the past three years. From the perspective of its self-production, the increase in import volume in December is expected.

The export of natural rubber in November 2023 was 51,400 tons, down 8.90% from 56,500 tons in the previous month and 1.00% from 50,900 tons in November 2022. Among them, the main export country is China, accounting for about 48.3%, followed by Germany, Iran, the United States, etc.

In November 2023, Malaysia's natural rubber consumption was 25,100 tons, a decrease of 6.32% from 26,800 tons in the previous month and 11.66% from 28,400 tons in November 2022, which means that the consumption shows different levels of fallback on an yoy basis comparison. From the perspective of consumer industry, the consumption of natural rubber latex glove industry is still in the first place in Malaysia's natural rubber consumption, accounting for 69.2%, tire and hose consumption accounting for 9.2%, rubber wire accounting for 9.9%, and other industries accounting for 11.7%.

As of November, Malaysia's overall consumption has basically remained at a low level of shock, with limited fluctuations and basically stable, and from its trend, Malaysia's demand is basically in a low balance. From the perspective of Malaysia's natural rubber consumption, there is no improvement trend in consumption as shown by the import volume, and the overall consumption situation in Malaysia this year is basically at a low level in the past three years, and it is expected that Malaysia's natural rubber demand will continue to remain relatively weak state in the absence of new demand stimulation.

In November 2023, Malaysia's natural rubber inventory was 172,300 tons, an increase of 13.21% from 152,200 tons in the previous month, and a decrease of 10.89% from 193,400 tons in November 2022. Most of the inventory is basically concentrated in the hands of rubber processors, the downstream terminal inventory accounts for about 10 percentage points, and the inventory of large plantation owners is scattered.