Ethanol: Some markets begin to weaken
Today's general ethanol price index was 6392, down 3.4 from the previous working day.
Today, in the domestic ethanol market, the price of ethanol in East China decreased by 50 yuan/ton, while other prices remained stable. Today's hot events: 1. The quotation of East China and North Jiangsu was reduced by 50 yuan/ton. 2〠The product is recovered from the threitol unit. 3〠The price of ethyl acetate continued to rise, but the number of transactions decreased.
Analysis of ethanol market
Specifically, the inventory of enterprises in Northeast China is not high at present, the quotation is stable, the downstream orders are replenished, and there are low price goods in the market; The price of raw materials in Henan continued to rise, and the cost was high, but the enterprise's shipment was average, and some low price orders were delivered in the early stage; The quotation in East China was lowered by 50 yuan/ton, which was too high in the early stage. The new price was weak, and the enterprise made a rational correction. By the end of the press release, Jilin's regular price was 6400-6500 yuan/ton, Jinzhou's regular price was 6600-6700 yuan/ton before the festival, and Heilongjiang's regular price was 6350-6400 yuan/ton. The premium price in Central China is 6650-6700 yuan/ton, and the price without water is temporarily stable at 7450-7500 yuan/ton. In the ethanol market in East China, the general price in North Jiangsu is 6700-6750 yuan/ton, and the general anhydrous price is 7600-7700 yuan/ton; The general price in South Jiangsu is 6800-6950 yuan/ton, and the enterprise's shipment is average. Cassava ethanol in South China and Guangxi is 7000-7200 yuan/ton.
The prediction
The prediction logic remains unchanged. It is expected that the domestic ethanol price will be stable or weak in the short term. Some enterprises in East China have stable order support prices, and small factories have a positive shipping mentality. The price may weaken slightly, but the space is limited; Northeast large factories sold at a fixed price, and the transaction was average. The short-term inventory was not high and the price was stable. Later construction increased, but the demand was limited. There was a possibility of weakness. After the continuous decrease or increase of orders in Henan, Sichuan Automobile will arrive in the factory one after another in the short term, and ethanol may stop falling. However, under the current large-scale epidemic situation, it also affects the delivery of enterprises.
Raw materials: corn ethanol: The price of corn fluctuated slightly on the 10th. The breeding profits continue to boost the breeding enthusiasm, the consumption of feed corn is expected to continue to warm up, the feed enterprises wait for the new grain to replenish the stock, and the downstream demand will warm up or slow down the seasonal supply pressure. On the whole, the corn supply in October was at the stage of alternation of old and new crops, and the old crops were still the main crops.
Supply: The construction in Northeast China has increased. The start-up time of Laha Phase II, BDA and Dongfeng is uncertain. It is possible for Jufeng to start in the middle of the year, and there is also a start-up plan for Zhongke Green in the middle of the year. The output of Huating Hall in East China was reduced, Jin Changlin and Jin Maoyuan were shut down, the Su alcohol plant was restored, and others remained normal. The enterprises in Mengzhou, Henan Province have not reached the full capacity. The molasses in South China is high, the molasses ethanol enterprises are not enough to start, and cassava is normally started.
Demand: Chemical ethyl acetate started stably, and the profit of the enterprise was fair. Today, the starting price of large factories continued to rise by 50 yuan/ton, and the shipment situation was average. Chemical enterprises continued to replenish ethanol, some traders replenished, and liquor just needed to be purchased.
Logistics: At present, the price of logistics is stable, large factories deliver goods in a centralized manner, Daqing has limited epidemic vehicles, and the oil price has risen at a high level. There are many restrictions on delivery under the large-scale epidemic situation.
