Ethanol: The regional trend of domestic ethanol price is obvious today
The general ethanol price index is 6400 on 10,Oct,+7 compared with 9,Oct.
Today, the regional trend of domestic ethanol price is obvious, the high-end price in North Jiangsu is rising, the high-end price in Henan is weakening, the price in Northeast China is stable, and the price in South China is stable. Today's hot spot: First, the transaction price of large chemical plants has landed, and the price has weakened slightly compared with the previous working day. 2〠The quotation of enterprises in northern Jiangsu has been raised by 50 yuan/ton. 3〠The premium high-end price in Henan declined by 50 yuan/ton.
To be specific, northeast Jilin large factory offers stable prices, enterprise contract orders are delivered, transaction prices are stable, and commencement is stable; The quotation of large factories in Heilongjiang is stable, the inventory of enterprises is general, and the logistics of Daqing is limited; In Mengzhou, Henan, the construction started steadily, the production of goods was less, and the price was weak; The quotation of enterprises in East China and North Jiangsu was increased by 50 yuan/ton, the Jinmaoyuan and Suzhou alcohol plants were shut down, and the large factories produced under low load. Jilin's regular price is 6400-6500 yuan/ton, Jinzhou's regular price is 6600-6700 yuan/ton before the festival, and Heilongjiang's regular price is 6350-6400 yuan/ton before the festival. The premium price in Central China is 6650-6700 yuan/ton, and the price without water is temporarily stable at 7500 yuan/ton. In the ethanol market in East China, the general price in North Jiangsu is 6750-6800 yuan/ton, and the general anhydrous price is 7550-7700 yuan/ton; The general price in southern Jiangsu is 6750-6850 yuan/ton, and the enterprise's shipment is average. Cassava ethanol in South China and Guangxi is 7000-7200 yuan/ton.
The prediction of domestic ethanol market
It is expected that the domestic ethanol price will be stable in the short term, the spot price in East China will not be much and the price will be stable, the inventory in Northeast China will not be high, the quotation will be stable, the small factories will ship actively, and the price will be low. Henan production is weak and prices are weak.
Raw materials: corn ethanol: The price of corn fluctuated slightly on the 10th. The breeding profits continue to boost the breeding enthusiasm, the consumption of feed corn is expected to continue to warm up, the feed enterprises wait for the new grain to replenish the stock, and the downstream demand will warm up or slow down the seasonal supply pressure. On the whole, the corn supply in October was at the stage of alternation of old and new crops, and the old crops were still the main crops.
Supply: The number of enterprises under construction in Northeast China has increased. At present, the number of enterprises under construction includes Inner Mongolia Shuntong No. 11 products, Heilongjiang Shenglong products in a short period of time, 10000 li fuel shutdown in the late ten days, and normal consumption. The start-up time of Laha Phase II, Boda, Dongfeng, and Jufeng is uncertain, and the overall number of enterprises under construction has increased. The output of East China Flower Hall was reduced, Jinmaoyuan and Suquan were shut down, and others remained normal. The enterprises in Mengzhou, Henan Province have not reached the full capacity. The molasses in South China is high, the molasses ethanol enterprises are not enough to start, and cassava is normally started.
Demand: The starting rate of chemical ethyl acetate remained at about 55%, and the replenishment of ethyl acetate after the festival was good. Today, the starting price of large factories rose by 50 yuan/ton, and the shipment was good. Chemical enterprises made significant ethanol replenishment, and liquor just needed to be purchased.
Logistics: At present, the price of logistics has risen by 20 yuan/ton, and the number of vehicles is small. Daqing and other parts of the country are expected to recover in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic. Delivery in other northeast regions is normal. But at present, it is snowing in Shenyang, but the ground temperature is high and the melting speed is fast. This winter is coming early, and the weather will affect the logistics for a long time.
