April 15th Macroeconomic Index: RMB Exchange Rate Stabilizes, China's SME Development Index Rises

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, held talks with French Minister of Economy and Finance Le Maire

2. The RMB exchange rate stabilized after short-term fluctuations, and the economy continued to improve to provide strong support

3. In the first quarter, China's SME development index rose by 0.2 points

4. Liu Jun, deputy director of the State Administration of Market Regulation: Comprehensively establish a policy orientation of consumer priority

International News

1. The ceasefire talks in the Gaza Strip have not yet ended, and the attitudes of all parties are different

2. The Security Council reconsiders the application of Palestine for full membership in the United Nations

3. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the revenue of the global wafer foundry industry increased by about 10% quarter-on-quarter

4. Berkshire Hathaway plans to sell yen bonds for the first time since the Bank of Japan raised interest rates

Domestic News

1. Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, held talks with French Minister of Economy and Finance Le Maire

According to the Ministry of Commerce, on April 8, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held talks with French Minister of Economy and Finance Le Maire in Paris, France. The two sides had frank exchanges on issues related to China-France economic and trade cooperation. Wang Wentao said that this year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France. Under the strategic guidance of the diplomacy between the two heads of state, the economic and trade relations between China and France have been deepened, and the prospects for cooperation are broad. In 2023, bilateral trade reached US$78.9 billion, China's imports from France increased by 5.5%, the bilateral trade balance was further improved, and two-way investment and cooperation in emerging fields flourished. China is ready to work with France to implement the relevant economic and trade consensus reached by the leaders of the two sides, promote more economic and trade results, and resolve each other's major economic and trade concerns.

2. The RMB exchange rate stabilized after short-term fluctuations, and the economy continued to improve to provide strong support

Recently, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has gradually stabilized and rebounded after experiencing unexpected fluctuations. Between March 25 and April 5, the offshore RMB rose 0.4% against the US dollar. On April 8, the offshore RMB fluctuated in a narrow range against the US dollar around 7.25. Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that on March 22, the offshore and onshore US dollar exchange rates against the RMB fluctuated significantly, but on the whole, most non-US currencies performed weakly on that day. Looking forward to the trend of the RMB exchange rate in the second quarter, it is clear that the US dollar index is running at a high level, and the RMB exchange rate may still be under pressure. However, internal factors can still support the RMB exchange rate, considering that the financial accounts represented by the stock and bond markets have maintained net inflows, and the central bank's policy of stabilizing the exchange rate has maintained strength, the probability of the exchange rate breaking through the previous high is not large.

3. In the first quarter, China's SME development index rose by 0.2 points

According to the official website of the China Association of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, the production rebound accelerated after the Spring Festival, and the policy combination after the "two sessions" continued to be effective, the momentum of economic recovery continued to increase, the production and operation of enterprises continued to improve, and the development index of SME rebounded again. The SME development index in the first quarter was 89.3, up 0.2 points from the previous quarter, higher than the same period in 2022 and the same as the same period in 2023, but still below the critical value of 100. Among them, the sub-industry index rose 3, 1 flat and 4 fell, and the sub-index rose in an all-round way. In March, the SME Development Index was 89.3, up 0.2 points from the previous month.

4. Liu Jun, deputy director of the State Administration of Market Regulation: Comprehensively establish a policy orientation of consumer priority

Liu Jun, deputy director of the State Administration for Market Regulation, said at the regular policy briefing of the State Council today that in the next step, the State Administration for Market Regulation will work with all sectors of society to comprehensively carry out the action of assured consumption, comprehensively establish the policy orientation of consumer priority, comprehensively build a consumption-friendly society, and actively build a co-governance pattern of assured consumption environment.

International News

1. The ceasefire talks in the Gaza Strip have not yet ended, and the attitudes of all parties are different

According to senior Egyptian security officials on April 8, delegations from the parties involved in the ceasefire talks in the Gaza Strip have temporarily left Cairo. The parties will return within two days to renegotiate the specific terms of a final ceasefire package. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Ansari said on the 8th that the ceasefire talks have not yet ended, but Qatar's attitude towards reaching an agreement is "more optimistic" than a few days ago. However, according to a number of media outlets, Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) did not show optimism that day.

2. The Security Council reconsiders the application of Palestine for full membership in the United Nations

The UN Security Council reconsidered Palestine's application for full membership of the United Nations on the 8th and decided to refer the application to its permanent Committee for the Admission of New Member States. On the morning of 8 July, the Security Council first held closed-door consultations on the Palestinian application, after which it held a public meeting and decided to refer the application to the Committee on the Admission of New Members. The committee, which is composed of 15 members of the Security Council, met on the afternoon of 8 August and reported to the Security Council after reaching conclusions. The Security Council then decides whether to make a recommendation to the General Assembly.

3. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the revenue of the global wafer foundry industry increased by about 10% quarter-on-quarter

According to Counterpoint Research's semiconductor foundry services report, global foundry industry revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by about 10% quarter-on-quarter, but decreased by 3.5% year-on-year. Although macroeconomic uncertainty remains, the industry has been gradually recovering since the second half of 2023, driven by supply chain inventory replenishment demand in end markets such as smartphones and tablets. Especially in the Android smartphone supply chain, there has been an increase in urgent orders from the PC and smartphone application sectors.

4. Berkshire Hathaway plans to sell yen bonds for the first time since the Bank of Japan raised interest rates  

Media reports that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway plans to sell yen bonds in the global market, which has sparked speculation that the billionaire is considering investing more in Japan. According to a person familiar with the matter, the U.S. business has commissioned banks to work on a potential standard SEC-registered bond offering. Depending on market conditions, the deal could be closed in the near future. Berkshire Hathaway will be the first major non-financial overseas bond issuer to launch yen trading after the Bank of Japan lifted the world's last negative interest rate policy.

Domestic Macro Economy Index