April 16th Macroeconomic Index: China Leads Global Nuclear Power Construction, Bilateral Trade with Australia Grows

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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. Economic Daily: Expand the advantages of the new energy vehicle industry

2. CITIC Securities: The growth rate of social finance in the second quarter may rise

3. China-Australia bilateral trade in goods increased by 4.1% in 2023

4. Blue Book of China's Nuclear Energy Development Report 2024: China continues to rank first in the world in terms of the number of units under construction and installed capacity

International News

1. There has been no progress in the ceasefire talks in Gaza, and the stance of both sides has not changed

2. Citi Bank: Gold and Japanese yen can be used as a portfolio hedge to raise oil price forecasts

3. Poland has implemented the largest PV and wind power cuts in history to combat oversupply

4. Agency: In Q1 2024, the total shipments of the global TV OEM market was 23.532 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%

Domestic News

1. Economic Daily: Expand the advantages of the new energy vehicle industry

According to the article, in recent years, the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry has largely benefited from the advantages of the domestic super-large-scale market. But compared with the global market of more than 8 billion people, the domestic market of more than 1.4 billion people is limited after all. The more than 100-year history of the world's automobile industry has proved that if automobile companies want to survive and achieve lasting success, they must take the road of being scale-based and international. German car companies, American car companies, Japanese car companies, and Korean car companies, all of them take that road. In the future, China's new energy vehicle industry will improve its global management capabilities in "going overseas". For car companies, they should take a multi-pronged approach through international trade, cross-border mergers and acquisitions, greenfield investment, authorized operation and other models, continue to learn in the process of "going overseas", continuously enhance their international operation capabilities and industrial chain integration capabilities, and realize the global operation of supply chain, human resources and marketing network.

2 CITIC Securities: The growth rate of social finance in the second quarter may rise

The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that RMB loans increased by 3.09 trillion yuan in March, a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion yuan. Under the guidance of smooth credit fluctuations, corporate loans stabilized in March, and household loans increased considerably. The growth rate of new social financing in March was 8.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from February, with loans and government bonds being the main drag, and non-standard financing performance was stable. The growth rate of social financing is likely to pick up in the second quarter, and potential supporting factors include a lower base, the pull of the refinancing policy for equipment renewal and the acceleration of the pace of government bond issuance. In March, the growth rate of M2 declined while the growth rate of M1 remained low, the pace of monetary expansion slowed down, and fiscal spending remained.

3. China-Australia bilateral trade in goods increased by 4.1% in 2023

On April 15, local time, Ren Hongbin, president of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said at the "China-Australia Business Seminar" held in Sydney, Australia, that in 2023, the bilateral trade in goods between China and Australia increased by 4.1% over the previous year, and China became Australia's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, and Australia's investment in China increased by 11.7% over the previous year, and the number of new Australian-funded enterprises in China increased by 40.2% over the previous year.

4. Blue Book of China's Nuclear Energy Development Report 2024: China continues to rank first in the world in terms of the number of units under construction and installed capacity

The China Nuclear Energy Industry Association released the Blue Book of China's Nuclear Energy Development Report 2024, which summarizes and analyzes the current development status of China's nuclear energy industry from the aspects of nuclear power operation, engineering construction, and scientific and technological innovation. According to the Blue Book, up to now, China has 26 nuclear power units under construction, which is till lead the world on its number and scale. The Blue Book shows that the construction of nuclear power units in China is progressing steadily. In 2023, China newly approved 5 nuclear power projects and started construction of 5 new nuclear power units. Up to now, China has 26 nuclear power units under construction, with a total installed capacity of 30.3 million kilowatts, continuing to rank first in the world.

International News

1. There has been no progress in the ceasefire talks in Gaza, and the stance of both sides has not changed

According to CCTV News, in the past two days, the ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip were still difficult, the positions of the two sides have not changed, and the negotiations have not made progress. Israel said on April 14 that Hamas had rejected the latest outline of the detainees exchange agreement submitted to it by the mediators of the negotiations. A day earlier, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement saying that Hamas still rejects any compromise proposals, insisting on a complete end to the conflict and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. The Israeli government and security forces unanimously oppose "these baseless demands". At present, the "only obstacle to reaching a ceasefire and releasing detainees" is Hamas, not Israel. Hamas issued a statement saying it had sent a response to Israel's proposal to Egypt and Qatar. In its statement, Hamas reiterated its demands in the ceasefire negotiations for a permanent ceasefire, a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, allowing displaced people to return to their homes, accelerating relief supplies assistance into the Gaza Strip and starting reconstruction efforts.

2. Citi Bank: Gold and Japanese yen can be used as a portfolio hedge to raise oil price forecasts

Citi Bank said it might be a good idea to hedge against gold, the yen as a portfolio hedge given the conflict in the Middle East. "In the oil market, more persistent tensions are now priced in, and we have raised our short-term oil price forecast from $80 to $88," analysts such as Dirk Willer wrote in the note. If tensions escalate significantly, oil prices could rise to around $100, and if oil prices do not spike, global markets could soon return to Fed-themed trading patterns.

3. Poland has implemented the largest PV and wind power cuts in history to combat oversupply

Poland ordered on April 14 the largest production cuts (restrictions) in history for wind farms and photovoltaic power plants to address the oversupply of electricity. Poland's national electricity grid operator, Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne SA (PSE), announced that "sunny and windy" days led to an increase in the generation of photovoltaic panels and wind turbines, but the demand for electricity on weekends (new energy) decreased, creating the need to balance the balance of the national power system.

4. Agency: In Q1 2024, the total shipments of the global TV OEM market was 23.532 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%

According to the report released by Lotu Technology (RUNTO), in the first quarter of 2024, the total shipment of the global TV OEM market as a whole was 23.532 million units, an increase of 5.5% over the same period in 2023, achieving continuous growth in Q1 shipments in the past three years.

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