Analysis of PVC Futures on June 30
PVC futures analysis: On June 30, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract opened low and went high, and the high point of the futures price further broke through and went up. However, the futures price fluctuated and weakened from the early trading on Monday, showing a downward trend, and closed low in the late afternoon. V2509 contract opening price: 4920, highest price: 4956, lowest price: 4885, spread 71, reduced position 7777 lots, position: 926073 lots, settlement price: 4924, yesterday's settlement: 4911, up 13, daily trading volume: 792725 lots, deposited funds: 3.169 billion, capital outflow: 46.23 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market showed different trends in the morning and afternoon, resulting in differentiation. From the comparison of valuations: North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, East China was stable, South China fell by 20 yuan/ton, Northeast China was stable, Central China was stable, and Southwest China was stable.
The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers did not show obvious adjustment trends at the beginning of the week, and were mostly stable. Manufacturers actively digested the factory inventory. The futures market price was strong at first and then weak, resulting in a small tentative increase in the spot market in the morning, but the increase was given up in the afternoon.
The spot price and the fixed price coexisted in the market, but the feedback from both quotation methods was not good. Although the futures price fell in the afternoon, the current price range did not have a transaction advantage, and the basis adjustment was not large. The basis price in East China was 09 contract (50-150-170), the 09 contract in South China (0-20-50), the 09 contract in the North (360-410-460), and the individual 09 contract in some sources in the Southwest (410-460-530). The spot market transaction was not good at the beginning of the week, and the downstream wait-and-see mentality was heavy.
PVC market forecast:
Futures: The PVC2509 contract price has recently reached a small high of 4956, successfully breaking through the upper rail pressure level. The recent highs have frequently broken through, and it is basically running between the middle and upper rails, but the high range is maintained for a short time, that is, it has fallen.
From the trend of futures prices, the low price has risen at the current time node, but the high price needs obvious factors to break through further, and the pressure in the high range is also relatively obvious. The Monday period showed a negative column with a long upper shadow. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) open upward, and the high range has slightly increased profit-taking. In the short term, the operation of futures prices will continue to observe the pressure performance of the upper rail range of 4920-4950.
Spot: First of all, the recent futures price is basically running between the middle and upper rails, and the bottom is relatively certain. At the current time node, there is still a certain expectation of bottoming out in the third quarter. Although the fundamentals are still weak, the futures price fluctuates with the overall commodity environment. Secondly, the spot market has been adjusted slightly within a relatively low range, and the adjustment range is not as large as that of the futures market. It can also be seen that the high price suppresses demand, and it is relatively difficult to increase the spot price, and the purchase frequency is not good at high prices.
Today, the cost port price of calcium carbide for PVC by calcium carbide method has been slightly increased by 50 yuan/ton. In the foreign market, the price of international crude oil futures market has continued to rise slightly, supported by the expectation of demand growth in the next few months, but failed to reverse the downward trend, because the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the uninterrupted oil supply have led to the disappearance of most of the geopolitical risk premium in the price. Overall, in the short term, the trend of the PVC spot market continues to be adjusted in a narrow range.
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