Market situation and outlook of natural rubber
Index
On July 7, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in Qingdao market was 1715 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day.
Market analysis
Futures market:
Spot market supply: Abroad: Thailand's overall raw material supply has been steadily increasing. Due to the weak demand for concentrated milk, the price of glue has continued to fall. Dry rubber factories are still adding prices to compete for raw material production, and the price difference between cups of water has narrowed; Vietnam's production areas have entered a seasonal production increase cycle, the weather has improved, the supply of raw materials has increased, and the purchase price has shown a slight correction trend.
Domestic: Continuous rainfall in Yunnan production areas has hindered rubber tapping operations, the output of glue is limited, and the tightening supply of raw materials has pushed up the purchase price; Hainan production areas have been affected by continuous rainfall, the release of new rubber on the island has been slow, and it is difficult to trade concentrated milk at high prices. The profits of processing plants are under pressure, and the sentiment for purchasing raw materials is cautious, and the purchase price of glue has fallen slightly.
Demand: It is understood that the overall output of enterprises weakened at the beginning of the month, and some semi-steel tire enterprises had maintenance plans, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate at the beginning of the month. Combined with the concentrated foreign trade shipments at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, it is beneficial to the digestion of finished product inventory of enterprises to a certain extent.
List of futures and spot prices
Market forecast
Today, the closing price of the main rubber contract fluctuated and weakened, and the spot quotation followed the downward shift of the center of gravity of the market. The continuous precipitation disturbance in the domestic production area supported the raw material price, but the overseas increase in volume was expected to suppress the price increase, and there was no strong drive on the supply side.
There is no obvious improvement in downstream demand, the market trading sentiment is cautious, and the intraday real order trading is light. At present, the macro sentiment has a great impact on the natural rubber market, but it is difficult to form a stable support. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a weak fluctuation in the range in the short term.
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