Natural Rubber Daily: Long-Short Tug-of-War, Range-Bound Trading Continues(Nov 4)

Natural Rubber Daily: Long-Short Tug-of-War, Range-Bound Trading Continues

On November 4, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao natural rubber market was 2,445 USD/ton, down 45 USD/ton from the previous trading day.

Supply

Overseas Production Areas

Thailand: Supply in the northeastern region is gradually increasing. Large factories remain active in raw material procurement with price suppression, and cup lump (cup rubber) purchase prices have declined. In the southern region, rainfall continues to disrupt operations; latex purchase prices are stable with minor adjustments, with declines smaller than those for cup lump.

Vietnam: Production areas are in the seasonal peak production phase. Rainfall in main production areas has decreased, tapping conditions have improved, and latex supply has recovered compared to the previous period.

Domestic Production Areas

Yunnan: Recent rainfall has affected the overall pace of raw material volume growth, but raw material price quotes are disorderly, with both high and low prices present.

Hainan: Increased rainfall has disrupted tapping operations, and the pace of raw material production release on the island has temporarily slowed. Supported by orders and profit factors, local processing plants maintain a premium bidding stance for raw materials. 

Demand

Industry profit levels are generally modest. Some enterprises, constrained by limited profit margins, are unable to operate at full capacity, and operating rates are somewhat restrained. A few medium-to-large enterprises have acceptable operating conditions, mostly flexibly scheduling production based on orders with relatively stable production rhythms. However, there are instances of incomplete product specification coverage, with some models in tight supply, and product structural completeness needs improvement.

Futures and Spot Price Overview

Market Outlook

Overseas production areas are gradually entering the supply increase phase, with new rubber output being released successively. Processing plants are highly motivated to sell, raw material purchase prices still have room for further decline, and cost-side support is weakening. The macro atmosphere remains weak, continuously suppressing commodity market sentiment. Downstream enterprises maintain a cautious procurement mindset, primarily engaging in small-volume, need-based stocking at low prices, with limited active inventory-building willingness. The demand side lacks effective driving force for rubber prices. However, the significant destocking of Qingdao spot inventory has somewhat boosted bullish sentiment in the industry, providing periodic support for rubber prices. Overall, the long-short tug-of-war in the natural rubber market persists, and rubber prices are expected to continue range-bound consolidation in the short term.

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